汹涌澎湃：流动性充裕后的滞胀潜伏

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report is bullish on Europe, bearish on the US dollar, and expects the Japanese yen to appreciate [2][5][8]. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, it will be a year dominated by liquidity. Ample liquidity and loose monetary policies lead to the spill - over of US dollar liquidity, rising asset prices, but the problem of de - globalization remains unsolved, and the pressure of long - term stagflation intensifies [4]. - The US economy is in a weak recovery during the interest - rate cut cycle, with a significant increase in potential stagflation pressure. The eurozone economy has stabilized, and the euro will maintain an upward trend. The Japanese yen is expected to appreciate in 2026 [1][2][3]. - The Fed's aggressive interest - rate cut policy and the expansion of US dollar liquidity will be the most important trends in 2026. The US dollar index is expected to continue to weaken significantly, dropping to around 90, with a larger decline in the second half of the year. Commodities, especially precious metals and non - ferrous metals, will continue to rise [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 US: Accelerated Liquidity Injection and Hidden Stagflation Pressure 3.1.1 Labor Market: Accelerated Weakening Trend - In 2026, the US labor market will trend towards a significant weakening. The "inflection point" of the labor market has appeared, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise. The decline in the labor market is a gradual process, and the "atypical recession" of the labor market will continue. The problem of structural imbalance in the labor market caused by the expulsion of illegal immigrants may keep wage growth relatively high [14][16]. 3.1.2 Economic Recovery or Hidden Stagflation - In 2026, due to the mid - term elections, the Trump administration will maintain the current tariff level. US inflation is mainly driven by inflation inertia, wage growth expectations, and marginal liquidity. Liquidity injection is likely to be a neutral factor for inflation in 2026, and the overall inflation center in the US is expected to remain at around 3% year - on - year. The economy will experience a process of weakening and then slow recovery, and the real estate sector may be boosted [23][34]. 3.1.3 US Dollar: Continued Weakness - In 2026, the US dollar index will continue to weaken. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates rapidly, which will improve the liquidity within the system and relieve the government's debt pressure. Although inflation can remain relatively stable, the US dollar index will remain weak, and the real interest rate is expected to approach 0%. The Fed may face potential pressure to expand its balance sheet to maintain a relatively flat yield curve [37][45]. 3.2 Eurozone and Japan 3.2.1 Eurozone: Economic Strength and Currency Appreciation - The eurozone economy is in a continuous recovery state, with stable inflation and rising consumer and business confidence. Even if the Russia - Ukraine conflict reaches a cease - fire agreement, the EU will continue to expand its fiscal deficit. Fiscal policy is more important than monetary policy. The euro and European stocks performed strongly in 2025, and the current economic model of fiscal expansion and monetary stability is beneficial to the eurozone economy [46][58]. 3.2.2 Japan: Continued Appreciation of the Yen - Japan's economy is in a positive cycle, with rising GDP growth, inflation, consumer confidence, and corporate loan growth. The Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates. Although the expansion of fiscal deficit exerts downward pressure on the yen, the Fed's interest - rate cuts and the Bank of Japan's interest - rate hikes will lead to a rapid decline in the US - Japan interest - rate differential, which will cause the yen to appreciate. The expansion of US dollar liquidity is expected to offset the contraction of yen liquidity [61][83]. 3.3 Global Macroeconomy: From Loose to Ample Liquidity, from Simple to Complex Situation - In 2026, global market liquidity will shift from loose to ample, and asset prices will continue to rise. The weak US dollar will lead to the spill - over of US dollar liquidity and the rise of non - US assets. However, loose liquidity does not solve the problem of de - globalization, and more radical policies may be introduced in 2027. The Russia - Ukraine conflict is unlikely to end in the short term, and the risk premium of safe - haven assets will continue to exist. The influence of fiscal policy on the global market is increasing, which will lead to long - term and irreversible inflation [84][91]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations 3.4.1 Weak US Dollar as the Main Trend in 2026 - The Fed's aggressive interest - rate cut policy and the expansion of US dollar liquidity will cause the US dollar index to continue to weaken significantly in 2026, dropping to around 90, with a larger decline in the second half of the year [93]. 3.4.2 Obvious Opportunities in Commodities - The accelerated injection of liquidity and the potential increase in inflation pressure will boost commodities, especially precious metals and non - ferrous metals, which will continue to rise in 2026 [94].