电解铜期货日报：美国CPI数据低于预期，铜价受到激励-20251224

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The copper price is in an environment where it is more likely to rise than fall. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in January are rising, the negative impact of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has been digested and turned into a positive support, and the supply of copper ore is tight while the electrolytic copper inventories in LME and SHFE remain at low levels [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Markets - On Thursday, the LME copper price rose and then fell. On Friday (December 19, 2025), the SHFE copper price fluctuated at a high level. The closing price of the main 2602 contract was 92,600 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan/ton or 0.24% from the previous trading day's closing price. The lower-than-expected US CPI data and the release of the negative impact of the Bank of Japan's 25 - basis - point interest rate hike on Friday pushed up the copper price [1]. - Today, the domestic spot copper was at a discount of 220 - 90 yuan/ton to the 2601 futures contract. The spot market trading was dull, downstream consumption was mainly for rigid demand, and the trading volume was relatively limited. The spread between refined and scrap copper in major domestic markets declined, with 4040 yuan/ton in Guangdong and 3977 yuan/ton in Tianjin [1]. 3.2 Macro and Fundamentals - The US announced that the CPI in November was 2.7%, lower than both the market expectation of 3.1% and the previous value of 3.0%. The number of initial jobless claims in the US was 224,000, slightly lower than the market forecast of 225,000. The market believes that US inflation is showing signs of cooling [1]. - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75% on Friday, reaching a 30 - year high. The market remained calm as the rate hike was in line with expectations [2]. 3.3 Market Outlook The market's expectation for a Fed rate cut in January is rising. After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the negative impact has been exhausted and turned into a positive factor. Coupled with the tight supply of copper ore and the low - level electrolytic copper inventories in LME and SHFE, the copper price is in an environment where it is more likely to rise than fall [10].