2026年人民币汇率展望：2026年人民币汇率大概率稳步升值

Group 1: Economic Outlook - In 2026, China's GDP growth target is likely to remain around 5.0%[10] - The U.S. unemployment rate is expected to rise above 5%, potentially reaching 5.5%[9] - China's Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to turn positive in the second half of 2026, indicating economic stabilization[10] Group 2: Currency and Exchange Rate - The RMB is expected to enter a significant appreciation phase in 2026 after a 2.5-year bottoming period[8] - Historical data shows that the RMB exchange rate has a 3-4 year cycle, currently in the early stage of appreciation[8] - The RMB exchange rate is projected to reach between 6.20 and 6.30 by 2027[14] Group 3: Interest Rates and Capital Flows - The interest rate differential between China and the U.S. is expected to narrow, providing support for the RMB[11] - The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to continue lowering interest rates, which will decrease the attractiveness of U.S. dollar assets[12] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The U.S. dollar index is anticipated to face downward pressure in 2026, which will contribute to the appreciation of the RMB[13] - China's export growth is expected to remain strong, benefiting from the favorable exchange rate environment[14]