瑞达期货纯苯产业日报-20251224

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - BZ2603 oscillated with a slight upward trend, closing at 5,461 yuan/ton. Last week, the operating rate of petroleum benzene decreased month-on-month, while that of hydrogenated benzene increased. The domestic pure benzene output rose slightly. Most downstream operating rates declined, with significant drops in caprolactam, phenol, and aniline. The weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream decreased month-on-month. The inventory at East China ports accumulated month-on-month, with high inventory pressure. The profit of petroleum benzene continued to recover, but the valuation remained low due to weak supply and demand. This week, most petroleum benzene plants will operate stably, and the load of some hydrogenated benzene plants will increase. Domestic pure benzene output is expected to increase slightly. The restart of a large styrene plant has been postponed, limiting the growth of its operating rate. The caprolactam industry will continue to cut production to maintain prices, and the plant load is expected to further decrease. The load of aniline and adipic acid plants is expected to increase slightly, but the impact is relatively limited. The supply-demand gap in the spot market will narrow slowly, and the oversupply situation is expected to continue. In terms of cost, due to the deterioration of the geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela, international oil prices have risen significantly recently. In the short term, BZ2603 is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the support around 5,360 and the resistance around 5,520 on the daily K-line [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the pure benzene futures main contract was 5,461 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan; the settlement price was 5,435 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan. The trading volume was 11,658 lots, down 1,607 lots; the open interest was 23,458 lots, up 0 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices of pure benzene in the East China, North China, South China, and Northeast markets were 5,325 yuan/ton, 5,150 yuan/ton, 5,300 yuan/ton, and 5,155 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, -201, 0, and -1 yuan. The mainstream prices of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu and Shanxi were 5,325 yuan/ton and 5,050 yuan/ton respectively, both unchanged. The spot price of pure benzene in South Korea (FOB) was 659 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the spot price of pure benzene in China (CFR) was 666 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 63.21 US dollars/barrel, up 0.42 US dollars; the CFR price of naphtha in Japan was 542.25 US dollars/ton, up 2.37 US dollars [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 74.94%, down 0.17 percentage points; the weekly output was 43.66 tons, down 0.1 tons. The port inventory of pure benzene was 26 tons, unchanged. The production cost was 5,161.2 yuan/ton, down 32.2 yuan; the production profit was 163 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of styrene was 69.13%, up 0.84 percentage points; the capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid were 69.2%, 74.93%, 61.35%, and 59.6% respectively, with changes of -5.37, -4.54, -14.59, and 0.4 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - From December 13th to 19th, the operating rate of petroleum benzene decreased by 0.17% to 74.94%, and that of hydrogenated benzene increased by 3.05% to 55.99%. Domestic pure benzene output increased slightly [2] - From December 13th to 19th, the weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream decreased by 2.82% to 68.49% [2] - As of December 22nd, the inventory of pure benzene at East China ports was 27.3 tons, up 5% from last week [2] - From December 13th to 19th, the profit of petroleum benzene increased by 55 yuan/ton to 163 yuan/ton [2]