Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-24 09:09Group 1: Report Summary - The report is an aluminum industry daily report dated December 24, 2025, covering futures, spot, upstream, industrial, downstream, option, and industry news aspects [1][2] Group 2: Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 22,330 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan; the main - second contract spread is -130 yuan, down 5 yuan. The main contract position is 296,924 lots, down 4,891 lots [2] - The closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,554 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan; the main - second contract spread is -104 yuan, up 5 yuan. The main contract position is 110,145 lots [2] - The LME three - month electrolytic aluminum quotation is 2,941 US dollars/ton, with no change; the LME aluminum inventory is 519,600 tons, and the LME aluminum cancelled warrants are 74,400 tons, with no change [2] - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 21,480 yuan/ton, up 215 yuan; the main - second contract spread is -135 yuan, down 100 yuan. The main contract position is 15,141 lots, down 877 lots [2] Group 3: Spot Market - The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 22,030 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan; the average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 21,950 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [2] - The Yangtze River Non - ferrous market AOO aluminum price is 21,840 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,640 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] - The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 470 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is -300 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [2] - The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount is -190 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount is -35.59 US dollars/ton, up 4.89 US dollars [2] - The basis of alumina is 86 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan [2] Group 4: Upstream Situation - The national alumina production in the month is 813.80 million tons, up 27.30 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) in the month is 730.23 million tons, up 25.92 million tons [2] - The alumina supply - demand balance in the month is 37.98 million tons, down 8.87 million tons; the national alumina inventory is 197,566 tons, down 61,270 tons [2] - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 17,200 yuan/ton, with no change; the average price in Shandong metal scrap is 16,650 yuan/ton, with no change [2] - China's import volume of aluminum scrap and waste in the month is 162,756.17 tons, up 4,396.16 tons; the export volume is 71.53 tons, up 39.07 tons [2] - The export volume of alumina in the month is 17.00 million tons, down 1.00 million tons; the import volume is 23.24 million tons, up 4.31 million tons [2] - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance in the month is -10.87 million tons, up 8.34 million tons [2] Group 5: Industry Situation - The electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 53.70 million tons, up 2.70 million tons; the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity is 4,524.20 million tons, up 1.00 million tons [2] - The import volume of primary aluminum in the month is 146,109.72 tons, down 101,652.54 tons; the export volume is 53,047.69 tons, up 28,474.13 tons [2] - The electrolytic aluminum production in the month is 593.10 million tons, up 23.70 million tons; the export volume of unrolled aluminum and aluminum products is 57.00 million tons, up 7.00 million tons [2] - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in the month is 70.00 million tons, up 9.17 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 3.06 million tons, down 0.03 million tons [2] Group 6: Downstream and Application - The completed production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 126.00 million tons, with no change; the national real estate climate index is 91.90, down 0.52 [2] - The aluminum alloy production in the month is 173.90 million tons, with no change; the automobile production in the month is 351.90 million vehicles, up 24.00 million vehicles [2] Group 7: Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 12.90%, up 0.06%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 12.01%, down 0.04% [2] - The implied volatility of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at - the - money is 12.91%, down 0.0094; the call - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options is 1.64, up 0.0391 [2] Group 8: Industry News - Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasized that central enterprises should focus on their main responsibilities and businesses, optimize the layout of the state - owned economy, enhance core functions and competitiveness [2] - The US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index in December dropped from 92.9 last month to 89.1, the fifth consecutive monthly decline [2] - The initial value of the US real GDP in the third quarter increased by 4.3% year - on - year, far exceeding the market expectation of 3.3% [2] Group 9: Alumina View - The alumina main contract fluctuates strongly, with reduced positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The raw material supply is sufficient, but domestic production capacity and operation may decline slightly due to profit erosion [2] - The demand from electrolytic aluminum plants is stable. The overall fundamentals are in a stage of excessive supply and stable demand. It is recommended to go long on dips with a light position [2] Group 10: Electrolytic Aluminum View - The Shanghai Aluminum main contract first falls and then rises, with reduced positions, spot discount, and strengthening basis. The aluminum plant profit expands, and the production capacity operation is positive [2] - The supply is expected to be stable, and the demand has some resilience at the end of the year but may weaken in the off - season. The overall fundamentals are in a tight supply - demand balance. It is recommended to go long on dips with a light position [2] Group 11: Cast Aluminum Alloy View - The cast aluminum main contract fluctuates strongly, with reduced positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The raw material supply is tight, and production may decline [2] - The demand is affected by the off - season, and the market transaction is average. The overall fundamentals are in a situation of slightly decreasing supply and slowing demand. It is recommended to trade with a slightly long position in a range - bound market with a light position [2]