瑞达期货不锈钢产业日报-20251224

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The stainless steel futures price is expected to adjust strongly. Pay attention to the support at MA5, with an upper target of 13,300 [2]. - Although the stainless steel mills' production profit has improved and the traditional demand peak season has passed, the actual decline in production is expected to be limited, and supply pressure still exists [2]. - Downstream demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the stainless steel export volume is showing a downward trend. The market procurement willingness is low, but the national stainless steel social inventory maintains a seasonal slight decline [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 13,075 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; the 01 - 02 contract spread is - 210 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 14,898 lots, an increase of 1,477 lots; the main contract position is 106,172 lots, an increase of 5,401 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity is 47,580 tons, a decrease of 125 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of stainless steel is 300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron production is 22,100 metal tons, a decrease of 800 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 12,840.49 tons, an increase of 2,900.84 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 895,400 tons, a decrease of 9,700 tons [2]. - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 130,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 4,950 yuan; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 900 yuan/nickel point, an increase of 10 yuan [2]. - The monthly Chinese ferro - chrome production is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly 300 - series stainless steel production is 1.7617 million tons, a decrease of 38,300 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 570,100 tons, a decrease of 17,600 tons [2]. - The monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 534.567 million square meters, an increase of 43.9531 million square meters [2]. - The monthly output of excavators is 33,600 units, an increase of 2,700 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 22,600 units, an increase of 700 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 9,000 units, unchanged [2]. Industry News - The National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference plans to stabilize the real estate market in 2026, control the increment, reduce the inventory, and optimize the supply according to local conditions [2]. - The US GDP in the third quarter increased by 4.3% year - on - year, the fastest growth in two years. The core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, increased by 2.9% [2]. - In the raw material end, the Philippines is gradually entering the rainy season, and the nickel ore grade is decreasing. The raw material inventory of domestic nickel - iron plants is tightening. Indonesia plans to significantly cut the RKAB quota next year [2].