Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-24 09:08Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The L2605 contract rose 1.99% to close at 6,408 yuan/ton. Last week, new maintenance devices were added, causing a decline in PE production and capacity utilization rate. The operating rates of agricultural film and packaging film continued to decline, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE decreased. Factory and social inventories changed differently, and the pace of total inventory reduction slowed down. Oil - and coal - based process costs decreased, and profits slightly recovered. There are no new maintenance or restart devices this week, and the impact of previously shut - down production capacity may lead to a further decline in PE production and capacity utilization rate. From December to January next year, with continuous capacity release and limited impact of device maintenance, the industry is expected to remain in a high - supply stage. The agricultural film is in the off - season, and the operating rate continues to decline; the demand for packaging film is limited, and it is difficult to support the demand. Due to the deterioration of the geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela, international oil prices have risen significantly recently. The short - term L2605 is expected to show a volatile trend, with support around 6,220 and resistance around 6,600 [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - The closing prices of polyethylene futures contracts increased, with the main contract closing at 6,408 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan; the 1 - month contract at 6,350 yuan/ton, up 104 yuan; the 5 - month contract at 6,408 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan; and the 9 - month contract at 6,445 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan. The trading volume was 668,755 lots, up 1,921 lots, and the open interest was 540,352 lots, down 41,207 lots. The 1 - 5 spread was - 58, down 8. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 462,058 lots, down 24,701 lots; the short positions were 547,783 lots, down 40,729 lots; and the net long positions were - 85,725 lots, up 16,028 lots [2]. Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 6,273.48 yuan/ton, down 50.43 yuan; in East China, it was 6,378.37 yuan/ton, down 18.84 yuan. The basis was - 134.52, down 162.43 [2]. Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 57.75 US dollars/barrel, up 0.24 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 542.25 US dollars/ton, up 2.37 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 726 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it was 746 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The national operating rate of PE in petrochemical plants was 83.86%, down 0.25 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film was 48.96%, down 0.63 percentage points; the operating rate of PE pipes was 31%, unchanged; the operating rate of PE agricultural film was 45.18%, down 1.22 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 14.64%, up 0.82 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 11.4%, up 0.41 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 15.1%, up 0.6 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 15.1%, up 0.62 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From December 12th to 18th, China's total polyethylene production was 679,600 tons, a decrease of 0.29% from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 83.86%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points from the previous period. From December 12th to 18th, the average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products decreased by 0.6% compared with the previous period. Among them, the overall operating rate of agricultural film decreased by 1.2%, and the operating rate of PE packaging film decreased by 0.6%. As of December 17th, the sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 488,700 tons, an increase of 3.65% from the previous period; as of December 24th, the social inventory of polyethylene in sample warehouses was 458,600 tons, a decrease of 5.99% from the previous period. From December 3rd to 19th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased by 2.86% to 6,937 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit increased by 182.71 yuan/ton to - 287.29 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased by 3.88% to 6,575 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit increased by 25.71 yuan/ton to - 41.14 yuan/ton [2].