瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20251224

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industry is in a situation of strong expectations and weak reality. In the short - term, SH2603 is expected to show a volatile trend, with the range around 2100 - 2300. Due to relatively loose supply and weak downstream demand, liquid caustic soda factory inventories have accumulated. Although the supply of caustic soda is expected to be high in December, the negative factors cannot be realized in the short - term. The planned commissioning of alumina plants in the first half of 2026 gives some support to the long - term price. Non - aluminum downstream may maintain rigid procurement [3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda is 2250 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; the main contract position is 159,783 lots, down 5,156 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 19,516 lots, down 4,283 lots; the main contract trading volume is 492,973 lots, up 149,306 lots. The closing price of the January contract is 2150 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the closing price of the May contract is 2358 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 720 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is 790 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The converted 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis is 0 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 247.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal is 643 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 75.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is 200 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 12,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina is 2,665 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [3] 3.6 Industry News - From December 12th to 18th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5%. From December 13th to 19th, the alumina operating rate decreased by 1.11% week - on - week to 85%. From December 12th to 18th, the viscose staple fiber operating rate remained stable at 89.62%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 0.69% week - on - week to 62.06%. As of December 18th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 464,700 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 1.66% and a year - on - year increase of 52.34%. From December 11th to 18th, the average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 216 yuan/ton, an increase from the previous week [3] 3.7 Outlook - A 300,000 - ton unit in East China will restart this week, and a 160,000 - ton unit in Southwest China will be under maintenance. The capacity utilization rate of caustic soda is expected to increase slightly. There are few maintenance plans for chlor - alkali plants in winter, and the supply of caustic soda is expected to be high in December. The winter storage of aluminum plants downstream of alumina has ended and the raw material inventory is high, and the imbalance between supply and demand in the industry is expected to intensify. However, since enterprises have no large - scale inspection plans, the negative factors for caustic soda cannot be realized in the short - term. There are many alumina plants planned to be commissioned in the first half of 2026, which gives some support to the long - term price. Non - aluminum downstream may maintain rigid procurement with little change [3][4]