瑞达期货生猪产业日报-20251224

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand are in a game. Some second - fattening pigs enter the market, supporting the short - term upward adjustment of hog prices. However, there is still pressure on the supply side in the medium term, and the terminal acceptance will decline after the price rises further, so the rebound space is expected to be limited. On the futures market, the hog 2603 contract rose 0.88% and has risen for three consecutive trading days, and it is expected to fluctuate within a short - term range [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for hogs was 11,480 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan; the main contract position was 161,915 lots, up 62 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 863 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 47,913 lots, down 1,675 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The hog price in Zhumadian, Henan was 11,700 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; in Siping, Jilin was 11,200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; in Yunfu, Guangdong was 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The main hog basis was 220 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The hog inventory was 436.8 million heads, up 12.33 million heads; the inventory of breeding sows was 39.9 million heads, down 450,000 heads [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The year - on - year CPI was 0.7%, up 0.5 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn was 2,338.24 yuan/ton, down 4.7 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange hog feed cost index was 881.53, up 0.59; the monthly output of feed was 29.779 million tons, up 209,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows was 1,432 yuan/head, down 5 yuan; the breeding profit from purchasing piglets was - 189.5 yuan/head, up 51.19 yuan; the breeding profit from self - breeding and self - raising hogs was - 130.88 yuan/head, up 32.46 yuan; the monthly import volume of pork was 60,000 tons, down 10,000 tons; the average price of white - striped chicken in the main producing areas was 14.1 yuan/kg, up 0.2 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated hog slaughtering enterprises was 38.34 million heads, up 2.5 million heads; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 605.7 billion yuan, up 85.8 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Industry News - According to Mysteel data, on December 24, the daily slaughter volume of hogs by sample slaughtering enterprises in key provinces was 164,794 heads, a 0.29% decrease from the previous day. Large - scale farms are slaughtering normally, and some areas are actively slaughtering standard hogs due to the epidemic, but the second - fattening replenishment has increased. On the demand side, bacon and sausage - making activities are in progress, and consumer demand is stable [2]