玉米淀粉日报-20251224

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The USDA raised US corn exports and lowered inventories in December, but production remains high, leading to a bullish and volatile trend in US corn. Domestic corn and starch prices are affected by factors such as import profit, supply and demand, and by - product prices. Corn and starch spot prices are expected to remain relatively stable in the short term, with some downward pressure. The 03 corn and 03 starch are expected to trade in a narrow range [4][6][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Data - Futures Market: For corn futures (C2601, C2605, C2509), prices increased slightly with varying trading volume and open - interest changes. For corn starch futures (CS2601, CS2605, CS2509), prices had small fluctuations, and trading volumes generally decreased [2]. - Spot and Basis: Corn spot prices in various regions were stable today, with different basis values compared to futures. Starch spot prices also remained unchanged, and basis values were positive. There were changes in inter - period and inter - variety spreads [2]. Part 2: Market Analysis - Corn: US corn is bullish and volatile. Domestic northern port prices are stable, while northeast production area prices are weak. Northeast - North China price spreads are narrowing. Wheat - corn price spreads are large, and corn has cost - effectiveness. Domestic breeding demand is stable, and feed enterprise inventories are increasing. The market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of northeast corn before the Spring Festival and downstream inventory building [4][6]. - Starch: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants decreased, and Shandong corn prices were stable. Starch inventory increased this week, with a monthly increase of 3.1% and a year - on - year increase of 25.4%. Starch prices depend on corn prices and downstream stocking. By - product prices are strong, and the spot price spread between corn and starch is low. Corn prices are bullish, and starch prices are stable, but corporate profits are declining. The 03 starch is expected to trade in a narrow range [7]. - Trading Strategies: - Unilateral: 03 US corn has support at 430 cents per bushel. Consider going long on 07 corn at low prices or stay on the sidelines [9]. - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [10]. Part 3: Corn Options - Option Strategies: Use a short - put strategy in the short term and roll the positions [11]. Part 4: Related Attachments - The attachments include charts of corn and corn starch spot prices, basis, and spreads over different time periods, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and iFinD Information [15][17][20].