有色普涨，铜铝尾盘拉升明显

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views of the Report - Copper: Today, the main contract price of Shanghai copper fluctuated around 95,000 yuan, with significant position - increasing and upward movement at the end of the session, breaking through the 96,000 - yuan mark. Macroscopically, after the December central bank resolutions of the US and Japan, liquidity increased, and the US dollar index continued to weaken, which was beneficial to non - ferrous metals. Industrially, the downstream was in a strong wait - and - see mood. The spot market had extremely weak buying in the morning, and due to year - end payment collection and capital pressure, sellers dumped a large amount of goods. The premium of mainstream flat - water copper to the SHFE 2601 contract dropped below a discount of 300 yuan/ton for the first time since late May 2024. In the short term, macro factors drove the copper price to rise with increased positions, and the industry followed passively, with strong upward momentum for the copper price [6]. - Aluminum: Today, the aluminum price fluctuated strongly, with position - increasing and rising at the end of the session, approaching the December high. Macroscopically, after the December central bank resolutions of the US and Japan, liquidity increased, and the US dollar index continued to weaken, which was beneficial to non - ferrous metals. Industrially, the basis and monthly spread remained weak, and the industrial side had strong constraints. The aluminum price rose back to the previous high, and technical pressure should be noted [7]. - Nickel: Last night, the nickel price rose and then fell. The main contract price of Shanghai nickel once reached the 130,000 - yuan mark. Today, it maintained a fluctuating trend around 127,000 yuan. Macroscopically, the weak US dollar led to a general rise in non - ferrous metals. Industrially, the expectation of policy disturbances in Indonesia increased, driving the nickel price up; the strong spot premium supported the nickel price. In the context of macro - easing, there were again disturbances in industrial supply, and the short - term upward momentum was strong [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - Copper: The copper price hit a new record high. Last night, Shanghai copper opened above 95,000 yuan/ton. The spot market had extremely weak buying in the morning. Due to year - end payment collection and capital pressure, sellers dumped a large amount of goods. The premium of mainstream flat - water copper to the SHFE 2601 contract dropped below a discount of 300 yuan/ton for the first time since late May 2024, and it is expected to continue to decline tomorrow [10]. - Aluminum: The chairman and general manager of India's National Aluminium Company (Nalco), Brijendra Pratap Singh, revealed that due to the dual effects of growing demand and limited supply, the aluminum price is expected to rise to about $3,000 per ton in the next fiscal year [11]. - Nickel: On December 24, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 126,400 - 134,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 130,200 yuan/ton, a rise of 4,950 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 6,500 - 7,000 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 6,750 yuan/ton, a decline of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 200 - 400 yuan/ton [12]. 2. Relevant Charts - Copper: The report includes charts of copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [13][14][15]. - Aluminum: The report includes charts of aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), SHFE - LME ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [26][28][30]. - Nickel: The report includes charts of nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [39][41][43].