过剩格局下的矛盾演化与政策博弈：2026年光伏产业链年度报告

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Industrial Silicon: In 2026, the industrial silicon market is expected to continue the pattern of "overall surplus and structural differentiation." Supply will be concentrated in the northwest, with slow clearance of backward capacity. Demand growth will slow down, mainly driven by polysilicon but limited by the slowdown in photovoltaic installation growth. Electricity cost is the core variable, with the northwest having a stable cost advantage and the southwest showing significant seasonal fluctuations. Prices are expected to fluctuate around the cost range, constrained by supply elasticity [5][7][10]. - Polysilicon: The polysilicon industry is transitioning from an "excess logic" to a complex stage of "policy intervention and high - quality capacity reshaping." Supply will experience structural changes, with backward capacity facing rigid exit and high - quality N - type material in short supply. Demand will enter a platform period due to the slowdown in global photovoltaic installation growth, and the industrial chain profit needs to be redistributed downstream. The market will be in a game between the "policy bottom" and the "demand top," and price trends and basis structures will be significantly affected by policy implementation and technological iteration [5][13][17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 Market Review - Industrial Silicon: In 2025, the price of industrial silicon showed a significant downward trend in the first half of the year due to supply pressure, and then fluctuated widely in the second half. The price was affected by factors such as production reduction in the southwest, weak downstream demand, and policy expectations [25]. - Polysilicon: The polysilicon market in 2025 went through four stages: shock, decline, sharp rise, and high - level consolidation. Policy factors, supply - demand imbalances, and market sentiment were the main drivers of price changes [28][29][30]. 3.2 Cost and Profit - Power Cost: Power cost is the most important variable in the cost of industrial silicon. The southwest has obvious seasonal power cost changes, while the northwest has a relatively stable power cost structure. In the future, the power cost advantage in Xinjiang will be more obvious through the source - network - load - storage integration model, and Yunnan and Sichuan have their own green power utilization models, but there are still challenges in power supply stability [34][35][36]. - Silicon Coal: In 2025, the price of silicon coal dropped by 30% - 45%, but in 2026, the downward space is limited. If the coal price stabilizes and rebounds, it will support the cost of industrial silicon. The price of silicon coal is expected to rebound to 1600 - 1800 yuan/ton if the "anti - involution" policy promotes industry self - discipline [43][44]. - Overall Cost and Profit: The cost of industrial silicon is relatively stable in 2026. The northwest has a lower cost, while the southwest has higher costs in the dry season. The profit level in 2025 was differentiated, and the industry profit rebounded slightly in the second half of the year [49]. 3.3 Supply - Excess Pattern and Slow Clearance: The industrial silicon supply in 2026 will maintain the pattern of overall surplus and structural differentiation. There is a large amount of backward capacity, and the market has difficulty in quickly clearing it due to policy - market differences and regional interest differentiation [57][58][62]. - New Capacity: New capacity will still be concentrated in the northwest in 2026. However, due to the impact of industrial silicon profits, the construction and commissioning of some new capacity may be postponed [67]. 3.4 Demand - Polysilicon: The demand for polysilicon in 2026 will be affected by the slowdown in photovoltaic installation growth. The supply of polysilicon will experience structural changes, with backward capacity being eliminated and high - quality N - type material in short supply. The price and basis structure will be affected by policy implementation and technological iteration [69][74][131]. - Organic Silicon: The demand for organic silicon is expected to remain stable in 2026. The supply - demand balance is expected to be repaired, and exports will drive the growth of organic silicon demand [104][107]. - Aluminum Alloy: The demand for silicon in the aluminum alloy industry will remain stable in 2026. Although the production of the aluminum alloy industry is growing, the consumption of primary industrial silicon is limited, and new energy vehicle consumption has limited impact on the demand for industrial silicon [112]. - Export: The export of industrial silicon is expected to remain stable in 2026. Overseas markets mainly purchase on - demand, and some overseas orders have been transferred to China due to cost and quality advantages [122]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Industrial Silicon: In 2026, the supply of industrial silicon will increase slightly, and the demand growth rate will be about 5%. The supply - demand gap will widen slightly, and the surplus pattern will be slightly improved [125][126]. - Polysilicon: In 2026, the supply - demand situation of polysilicon will be affected by policies. If the capacity is tightened as expected, the market will be in a tight - balance state; otherwise, it will remain in an oversupply state [127][129]. 3.6 Market Outlook - Industrial Silicon: In 2026, the industrial silicon market will continue to be in a slightly surplus state. Prices will fluctuate around the cost range, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes brought about by short - term supply - demand mismatches and policy implementation [10][130]. - Polysilicon: The polysilicon market will be in a game between policy implementation, capacity clearance, and global installation demand. The price will seek a balance among the "policy bottom," "demand top," and "quality difference," and the market may be in a tight - balance state [17][131].