图说金融：7.0关口下的人民币：重点图表与逻辑解析

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In 2026, the RMB exchange rate may show a stable and appreciating trend, with an operating range of 6.8 - 7.2 and limited depreciation space. Attention should be paid to its appreciation opportunities [2]. - The direction and rhythm of the RMB exchange rate in 2026 may depend on three factors: the central bank's regulation intensity of the central parity rate, the directional performance of the external US dollar index and the performance of the domestic equity market, and whether exports can continue to perform well [2]. 3. Summary by Related Information Recent Tracking - Recently, the offshore RMB exchange rate has performed stronger than the on - shore one, reflecting the weakening of the overseas US dollar and the increasing attractiveness of domestic asset returns, which has led to continuous inflows of foreign capital [2]. - Since the second half of the year, the market's willingness to settle foreign exchange has increased, and the year - end seasonal peak of foreign exchange settlement has provided a favorable environment for the RMB exchange rate [2][8]. - Recently, the central bank has continuously guided the central parity rate in the depreciation direction, with an adjustment range of about 180 basis points in the past week [2]. Exchange Rate Data - From November 2025, the offshore exchange rate has gradually become stronger than the on - shore exchange rate [6]. - The table shows the exchange rate data from December 18 - 24, 2025, including the Chinese representative rate, the estimated mean, and the spread [5]. Central Bank Policy - The central bank has increased the intensity of adjusting the central parity rate in the depreciation direction [11].