山金期货贵金属策略报告-20251224

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals rose to a high level. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.63%, the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 8.12%, the main contract of platinum closed up 7%, and the main contract of palladium closed up 6.99% [1]. - In the short - term, in terms of risk - aversion, the risk - aversion sentiment from the trade war has subsided, while the risk of geopolitical fluctuations has increased. The weakening of the US employment and moderate inflation still support the expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. - In terms of the risk - aversion attribute, the risk of geopolitical fluctuations in regions such as the US - Venezuela, Thailand - Cambodia, and Russia - Ukraine has increased [1]. - In terms of the monetary attribute, although the US economic growth in the third quarter exceeded expectations, consumer confidence dropped to the lowest level since April. The US core CPI in November increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest growth rate since early 2021, lower than the market expectation of 3%. The US employment rebounded more than expected in November, and the unemployment rate rose to a four - year high. The Fed cut interest rates in December with significant differences, hinting at a pause in action and only one possible interest rate cut next year. The market currently expects the probability that the Fed will not cut interest rates in January 2026 to remain around 80%, and the next interest rate cut may be in April. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating weakly [1]. - In terms of the commodity attribute, silver is supported by tight supply. The demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong. Palladium still has short - term demand resilience but faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1]. - It is expected that precious metals will oscillate upwards in the short - term, oscillate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term [1]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - Price: International prices (Comex Gold active contract and London Gold) and domestic prices (Shanghai Gold main contract and Gold T + D) all increased. For example, the Comex Gold active contract closed at $4515.00 per ounce, up 0.77% from the previous day and 4.22% from the previous week [2]. - Position and inventory: The positions of Comex Gold and Gold T + D increased, while the position of Shanghai Gold main contract decreased. In terms of inventory, the LBMA inventory remained unchanged, the Comex Gold inventory decreased by 1.08%, and the Shanghai Gold inventory increased slightly [2]. Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - Price: International prices (Comex Silver active contract and London Silver) and domestic prices (Shanghai Silver main contract and Silver T + D) all increased. For example, the Shanghai Silver main contract closed at 17,609 yuan per kilogram, up 7.10% from the previous day and 13.52% from the previous week [4]. - Position and inventory: The position of Shanghai Silver main contract increased, while the positions of Comex Silver and Silver T + D decreased. The total visible inventory increased slightly [4]. Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - Price: International prices (NYMEX Platinum active contract and London Platinum) and domestic prices (Platinum main contract on GQEX and Platinum on SGE) all increased. For example, the NYMEX Platinum active contract closed at $2343.20 per ounce, up 9.04% from the previous day and 25.02% from the previous week [7]. - Position and inventory: The position of NYMEX Platinum active contract decreased, and the inventory increased [7]. Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [10]. - Price: International prices (NYMEX Palladium active contract and London Palladium) and domestic prices (Palladium main contract on GQEX) all increased. For example, the NYMEX Palladium active contract closed at $1964.00 per ounce, up 5.56% from the previous day and 18.14% from the previous week [10]. - Position and inventory: The position of NYMEX Palladium active contract increased, and the inventory remained basically unchanged [10]. Key Data of Precious Metals Fundamentals - Fed - related data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance rate all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets remained unchanged at $66077.29 billion [12]. - Inflation data: The year - on - year CPI was 2.70%, the core CPI was 2.60%, etc. [14]. - Economic growth data: The annualized year - on - year GDP was 2.30%, and the annualized quarter - on - quarter GDP was 4.30% [14]. - Labor market data: The unemployment rate was 4.60%, and the non - farm payrolls monthly change was 6.40 million [14]. - Other data: The geopolitical risk index decreased by 68.60%, and the VIX index decreased by 15.05% [15]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability distribution of the Fed's interest rate levels at different meetings from 2026 to 2027 is provided. For example, in January 2026, the probability of the interest rate being in the range of 350 - 375 is 86.7% [16].