电力、电气行业2026年度信用风险展望

Investment Rating - The credit risk outlook for the power and electrical equipment manufacturing industry in 2026 is overall controllable, with structural differentiation continuing, highlighting the stability of leading enterprises while remaining cautious about the operational and debt pressures faced by small and medium-sized enterprises [8][50]. Core Insights - The power and electrical equipment manufacturing industry is a crucial part of the national economy, closely linked to macroeconomic growth and electricity investment demand. Since 2024, electricity consumption has steadily increased, and the industry is accelerating the construction of a new energy system and power grid [8][9]. - In 2025, industry policies focus on growth stabilization, market reform, industrial integration, and rural electricity support, with attention needed on the execution of growth targets and the participation of private capital [8][11]. - The industry is characterized by a pyramid structure, with a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises facing intense competition. The ability to negotiate with upstream and downstream partners is weak, and there is significant capital occupation from accounts receivable and inventory [8][21]. - Profitability in the industry is under pressure from upstream and downstream factors, but there was a slight recovery in operating profit in the first half of 2025, with overall profitability remaining stable compared to the previous year [8][27]. - The industry maintains a good credit status, with no new defaults reported in 2025, although there is a need to monitor potential concentrated repayment pressures in the future [8][39]. Industry Fundamentals - The power and electrical equipment manufacturing industry is significantly influenced by national economic growth and electricity investment demand. In 2024, the total electricity consumption in China reached 9.85 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [10]. - The investment in power generation and grid construction has seen substantial growth, with a focus on renewable energy installations becoming the mainstay [19][18]. Industry Policies and Regulatory Environment - Numerous policies have been introduced to support the power and electrical equipment industry, emphasizing growth targets, market reforms, and rural electrification [11][13]. - Key policies include the "Power Equipment Industry Growth Stabilization Work Plan (2025-2026)" which sets revenue growth targets for traditional power equipment at around 6% annually [13][15]. Industry Operating Conditions - In the first three quarters of 2025, investment growth in power generation and grid construction continued, with a notable increase in the construction of new energy systems [17]. - The total installed power generation capacity reached 3.72 billion kW by the end of September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17.5% [18]. Industry Competitive Landscape - The industry exhibits a pyramid-shaped competitive structure, with a high degree of marketization and significant pressure on capital occupation. The number of enterprises in the power and electrical equipment manufacturing sector exceeds ten thousand, with small and medium-sized enterprises making up a large proportion [21][22]. - The competition is particularly fierce in the low and medium voltage cable sectors, while high voltage and ultra-high voltage cable production is dominated by a few key players due to high technical barriers [21]. Industry Financial Status - The profitability of the industry is affected by the dual pressures of upstream raw material costs and downstream customer pricing. In the first half of 2025, sample enterprises saw a slight increase in operating profit, with overall revenue growth of 1.07% [27][28]. - The financial leverage of sample enterprises decreased slightly by mid-2025, remaining at a moderate level, with an average asset-liability ratio of around 58% [33][36]. Industry Bond Market Performance - The credit status of the power and electrical equipment industry remains stable, with no defaults reported in 2025. The majority of bonds issued are short-term financing bonds and general corporate bonds [39][40]. - As of the first nine months of 2025, 37 bonds were issued, primarily by local state-owned enterprises with AAA ratings, indicating a preference for short-term flexible financing [41][43].