银河期货农产品日报-20251224

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This year, apple production has declined, the quality fruit rate is poor, preservation is more difficult, and cold storage inventory data is low. The peak cold storage apple inventory this year is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, and the apple quality is relatively poor. Therefore, it is expected that the effective inventory will likely be low, and the apple fundamentals are strong. Although the recent market sales are average and the market shows a weak technical trend, considering this year's apple production issues, the downward space is expected to be relatively limited [5]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Market Information - Spot Prices: The Fuji apple price index is 109.01, up 0.31 from the previous day. The prices of various apple varieties such as Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bagged 70, Qixia first and second - grade paper - bagged 80, etc., remained unchanged. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits was 7.79, down 0.04 [2]. - Futures Prices: AP01 closed at 9664, up 15; AP05 closed at 9191, down 30; AP10 closed at 8169, down 19. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as AP01 - AP05 up 54, AP05 - AP10 down 20 [2]. - Differences: The difference between Qixia first and second - grade 80 and AP01 was - 1464, down 15; the difference between Qixia first and second - grade 80 and AP10 was 31, up 19 [2]. 3.2 Market News and Views - Transaction Logic: Due to low production, poor quality, and low cold storage inventory, the apple fundamentals are strong. Despite the current average sales and weak technical trend, the downward space is limited [5]. - Transaction Information: As of December 17, 2025, the national main - producing area apple cold storage inventory was 7.5298 million tons, a decrease of 55,700 tons from the previous week, and sales were slower than the same period last year. In October 2025, the fresh apple import volume was 3,100 tons, a 68.09% decrease from the previous month and an 8.54% increase year - on - year; the export volume was about 80,400 tons, a 13.51% increase from the previous month and a 17.04% decrease year - on - year. The origin apple prices are stable, with an increase in the procurement volume of merchants in recent days. Cold storage shipments are mainly third - grade and inferior fruits, and the sales volume of high - priced goods is still low [7]. - Transaction Strategy: In the short - term, the market is expected to fluctuate within a range. For arbitrage, go long on contract 1 and short on contract 10. For options, it is recommended to wait and see [8]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides 10 related charts, including the price trends of Qixia first and second - grade paper - bagged 80, Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bagged 70, AP contract basis, and the spreads between different contracts, as well as the apple arrival volume and the prices of 6 kinds of fruits, and the national cold storage apple inventory and shipment volume [11][13][20]