鸡蛋日报-20251224

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure. It is expected that the pace of short - term capacity reduction will be relatively gentle, the spot price is expected to decline, the near - month contracts are expected to be mainly volatile and weak, and long positions can be considered to be established at low prices for the far - month May contract as the supply pressure eases [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Contract Prices: JD01 closed at 3072, up 45 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3558, up 17; JD09 closed at 4086, up 40 [2]. - Cross - month Spreads: The 01 - 05 spread was - 486, up 28; the 05 - 09 spread was - 528, down 23; the 09 - 01 spread was 1014, down 5 [2]. - Ratio with Feed: The ratios of 01, 05, and 09 eggs to corn and soybeans all showed slight increases [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Egg Prices: The average price in the main producing areas was 2.92 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main selling areas was 3.14 yuan/jin, down 0.09 yuan/jin. Most of the national mainstream prices declined [2][4]. - Culled Chicken Prices: The average price of culled chickens in the main producing areas was 3.84 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous day [7]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - Costs: The average price of corn was 2340 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the average price of soybean meal was 3110 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.57 yuan, unchanged [2]. - Profits: The profit per chicken was - 2.61 yuan, down 1.99 yuan from the previous day [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - Egg Production and Sales: In November, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.352 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, and a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. The sales volume of eggs in representative selling areas was at a low level in previous years [5]. - Culling Situation: In the week of December 18, the number of culled chickens in the main producing areas was 19.67 million, with little change from the previous week, and the average culling age was 486 days, unchanged [5]. - Inventory Situation: As of December 18, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1 day, slightly decreasing; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.12 days, slightly increasing [6]. 3.5 Trading Logic The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the supply pressure. It is expected that the short - term capacity reduction will be gentle, the spot price will decline, the near - month contracts will be volatile and weak, and long positions can be considered for the far - month May contract [8]. 3.6 Trading Strategies - Single - side: It is expected that the near - month contracts will be mainly volatile and weak in the short term, and long positions can be considered for the far - month contracts at low prices [9]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [11].