银河期货白糖日报-20251224

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Internationally, Brazilian sugar is entering the harvest - end stage, and the supply pressure will gradually ease. The market's focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere, where most sugar production is in an increasing cycle. The US sugar price is expected to oscillate slightly stronger at the short - term bottom. Domestically, due to factors such as low current prices, high processing costs, and the upward trend of the US sugar price, the domestic sugar price may have some upward space in the short term, but the upward space may be limited considering the peak domestic sugar - pressing period and the global sugar production increase expectation in the 25/26 season [8] - The Brazilian sugar - pressing season is approaching the end, and the international sugar price shows signs of bottoming. The domestic sugar is expected to maintain an upward trend in the short term. For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a long position in the single - sided trade, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell put options [9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Analysis - Futures Market: SR09 closed at 5,266, up 110 (2.13%) with a trading volume of 38,893 (an increase of 24,822) and an open interest of 63,211 (an increase of 4,698); SR01 closed at 5,392, up 136 (2.59%) with a trading volume of 20,405 (an increase of 10,867) and an open interest of 28,350 (a decrease of 9,933); SR05 closed at 5,262, up 107 (2.08%) with a trading volume of 463,804 (an increase of 256,401) and an open interest of 466,130 (a decrease of 42,820) [3] - Spot Market: In the spot market, the prices in different regions such as Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, and Nanning all increased to varying degrees. The basis in Liuzhou was 28, - 152 in Kunming, 258 in Wuhan, - 42 in Nanning, 158 in Rizhao, and 428 in Xi'an [3] - Month - to - Month Spread: The spread of SR05 - SR01 was - 130 (down 29); the spread of SR09 - SR05 was 4 (up 3); the spread of SR09 - SR01 was - 126 (down 26) [3] - Import Profit: The quota - free price of Brazilian imports was 5,197, and the profit compared to Liuzhou was 353; the quota - free price of Thai imports was 5,260, and the profit compared to Liuzhou was 290 [3] 3.2 Market Judgment 3.2.1 Important Information - From December 23 - 24, two new sugar mills in Yunnan started production, and 2 - 3 more are expected to start this week. As of now, 35 sugar mills in Yunnan have started production in the 25/26 season, 5 more than the same period last year, with an expected sugar - cane crushing capacity of 123,200 tons per day, an increase of 12,600 tons per day. The spot price of sugar in Yunnan is 5,230 - 5,260 yuan/ton, and the transaction volume has reached a few thousand tons [5] - In Maharashtra, as of December 21, 2025, 184 sugar mills have started production in the 25/26 season, with a cumulative sugar - cane crushing of 44.604 billion tons and a sugar output of 3.8021 billion tons, with a sugar - extraction rate of 8.52% [5] - On the 24th, the futures market rose, and the spot prices of sugar in the main production areas increased accordingly, with overall good trading volume [6] 3.2.2 Logical Analysis - International: Brazilian sugar is entering the end of the harvest season, and the supply pressure will gradually ease. The market's attention has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere, where most sugar production is in an increasing cycle. The final realization of the production increase in the Northern Hemisphere may affect the market trend. The US sugar price is expected to oscillate slightly stronger at the short - term bottom [8] - Domestic: The current sugar price is low, and the previous excessive price decline has been partially corrected. The high processing cost in China provides support for the market. The upward trend of the US sugar price also has an upward - driving effect on Zhengzhou sugar. However, considering the peak domestic sugar - pressing period and the global sugar production increase expectation in the 25/26 season, the upward space is limited [8] 3.2.3 Trading Strategies - Single - sided Trade: The Brazilian sugar - pressing season is approaching the end, and the international sugar price shows signs of bottoming. The domestic sugar is expected to maintain an upward trend in the short term [9] - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [10] - Options: Sell put options [10] 3.3 Related Attachments - The attachments include multiple graphs showing data such as monthly inventory in Guangxi and Yunnan, monthly sugar production in Guangxi and Yunnan, Liuzhou's spot sugar price, the price difference between Liuzhou and Kunming, and various basis and spreads of sugar futures. The data sources are Galaxy Futures and WIND [12][13][16][18][19][22]