棉花、棉纱日报-20251224

Group 1: Market Information - Futures contracts: CF01 closed at 14210 with a 15-point increase, CF05 at 14180 with a 40-point increase, etc. CY01 closed at 20125 with a 50-point increase, etc [2] - Spot prices: CCIndex3128B was 15271 yuan/ton with a 117-yuan increase, Cot A was 73.50 cents/pound, etc [2] - Spreads: Cotton 1 - 5 month spread was 30 with a -25 change, CY01 - CF01 spread was 5915 with a 35-point increase, etc [2] Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - On December 24, 2025, the out-of-Xinjiang cotton road transport price index was 0.1984 yuan/ton·km, remaining flat [5] - In November 2025, China's cotton yarn imports were 150,000 tons, a 25% year-on-year increase and a 7.14% month-on-month increase. From January - November 2025, cumulative imports were 1.33 million tons, a 3% year-on-year decrease [5] - In November 2025, full cotton grey fabric exports were 48.58 million meters, a 22% year-on-year increase, and the export amount was $46.23 million, a 3.5% increase. From January - November 2025, cumulative exports were 591 million meters, a 24.48% increase [6] - As of the week ending December 11, 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 69,100 tons, a 99% weekly increase [6] Trading Logic - Fundamental factors are positive for cotton, with fast sales, potential reduction in Xinjiang's planting area, and textile factory expansion expectations. Macro factors like Sino-US relations also provide support. Technically, cotton shows an upward trend [7] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to range - bound, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Hold off [9] - Options: Hold off [10] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The overall trading atmosphere of pure cotton yarn futures is weak, except for combed high - count yarns. All - cotton grey fabric market shipments are light [10] Group 3: Options - Option data: On November 24, 2025, for CF601C13400.CZC, the closing price was 183 with a 71% increase, etc [12] - Volatility: Cotton's 10 - day HV increased slightly. Implied volatilities of different options varied [12] - Option strategy: Hold off [14] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report includes multiple charts such as the 1% tariff cotton price spread, cotton basis for different months, and spreads between cotton and cotton yarn contracts [16][19][23]