油粕日报：底部震荡-20251224

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - South American soybean sowing is progressing smoothly with a high - yield expectation. U.S. soybeans have resumed sales to China, but the sales progress is significantly lower than the same period last year, leading to continued weakness in U.S. soybeans. Rumors of imported soybean reserves release after New Year's Day and the pre - placement of some February reserves to January have weakened the near - month spot market. The far - month contracts are expected to remain weak with no sign of all bad news being priced in [2]. - Indonesia's biofuel policy has limited development space due to poor economic viability. The implementation of the U.S. renewable diesel tax credit policy in January can enhance the competitiveness of U.S. biodiesel. After a short - term rebound in the oil and fat sector following crude oil, the futures - spot basis has narrowed. The subsequent upward drive of the market depends on the U.S. biofuel policy. Short - term spot purchases can be made appropriately, but conservative operations are recommended before the U.S. biofuel policy is fully implemented [2][3]. Summaries Based on Related Content Soybean Meal - The estimated output of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop is 178.3 million tons, unchanged from the previous estimate, with a forecast range of 174.1 - 182.6 million tons [1]. - As of the week ending December 11, U.S. soybean export sales totaled a net increase of 2.4247 million tons, in line with expectations. Current - market - year soybean export sales increased by 54% from the previous week and 69% from the four - week average, with net sales to the Chinese mainland at 1.383 million tons. Next - year's soybean export sales had a net increase of 28,500 tons. U.S. soybean exports for shipment were 721,300 tons, down 33% from the previous week and 31% from the four - week average, with 202,000 tons shipped to the Chinese mainland. Current - market - year new soybean sales were 2.4189 million tons, and next - market - year new sales were 28,500 tons [1]. Oils and Fats - Indonesia's biofuel quota for 2026 is 15.646 million kiloliters, slightly higher than the 15.6 million kiloliters in 2025 [2]. - The market speculates that the Trump administration will decide on the 45Z tax credit for sustainable aviation fuel next week. Since January 1, U.S. biodiesel producers' tax credit will increase to 64 cents per gallon, and renewable diesel producers' to 53 cents per gallon [2].