【冠通期货研究报告】甲醇日报：伊朗装置反复扰动市场情绪-20251224

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The futures market shows a narrow intraday oscillation. The pressure of the 40 - day moving average at the daily - line level has not been effectively broken. It's difficult to significantly reduce inventory before the Spring Festival. The repeated situation of Iranian plants has a great impact on market sentiment. After the delivery of near - month contracts, the market may improve. In the short term, it should be treated as a rebound after over - decline, and attention should be paid to the previous low support [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - Inventory: As of December 17, 2025, the total methanol port inventory in China was 1218800 tons, a decrease of 15600 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China decreased by 31000 tons, while that in South China increased by 15400 tons. This week, the port inventory in East China decreased slightly and that in South China increased slightly. In East China, the提货 of the mainstream social warehouses continued well, and the shutdown and maintenance of an olefin plant in Zhejiang affected consumption. In South China, the inventory in Guangdong increased slightly with sufficient imports and good提货, and the inventory in Fujian increased slightly due to slow unloading speed and downstream rigid demand [1] - Import: Due to gas restrictions in Iran, the operating rate decreased and loading slowed down, reducing import pressure to some extent. Considering the loading data in November and delayed arrivals, the estimated import volume from December 2025 to January 2026 is between 1.4 and 1.6 million tons [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - Six special working groups led by multiple government departments have recently conducted on - the - spot inspections in 12 key regions across the country to investigate and seal up abandoned mine caves and crack down on illegal mining [2] - The Ministry of Commerce held a meeting to boost consumption [2] - The world's first methanol - dual - fuel VLCC oil tanker "Kaituo" ordered by China Merchants Energy Shipping Co., Ltd. was delivered in Dalian on December 22, 2025 [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The futures market shows a narrow intraday oscillation, with pressure from the 40 - day moving average at the daily - line level remaining. It is difficult to significantly destock before the Spring Festival. After the delivery of near - month contracts, the market may improve, and in the short term, it should be seen as a rebound after over - decline, with attention on the previous low support [4]