【冠通期货研究报告】芳烃日报：产业链边际虽有改善，但淡季存需求疲软预期-20251224

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - The marginal improvement in the aromatics industry chain is observed, but there are expectations of weak demand during the off - season [1] - The pure benzene market is currently in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the subsequent inventory accumulation will gradually slow down [1] - The styrene market may experience seasonal inventory accumulation from January to March according to past industry rules [2] - The pure benzene futures market should be treated with a volatile mindset, and attention should be paid to the support near the previous lows [4] - The styrene futures market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the support near the previous lows [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Analysis Pure Benzene - Production profits: Caprolactam production profit is - 350 yuan/ton (- 40), phenol - acetone production profit is - 927 yuan/ton (+0), aniline production profit is 789 yuan/ton (+178), and adipic acid production profit is - 1018 yuan/ton (- 11) [1] - Operating rates: Caprolactam operating rate is 69.20% (- 5.37%), phenol operating rate is 76.00% (- 3.50%), aniline operating rate is 61.35% (- 14.59%), and adipic acid operating rate is 59.60% (+0.40%) [1] - Supply and demand: Due to tariff issues, South Korea's exports of pure benzene to China increased, with concentrated imports arriving at ports. There is obvious pressure on port inventory, and the market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [1] Styrene - Production and utilization: From December 12th to 18th, China's styrene factory production was 34.68 tons (+2.38% compared to the previous period), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 69.13% (+1.02% month - on - month) [2] - Downstream consumption: The consumption of styrene downstream products EPS, PS, and ABS was 26.18 tons (- 3.89% month - on - month) [2] - Inventory: Styrene factory inventory was 17.10 tons (- 4.23% compared to last week), as of December 22nd, the East China port inventory was 13.93 tons (+3.41% compared to last week), and the South China port inventory was 1.1 tons (- 26.67% compared to last week) [2] - Profits: As of December 17th, the non - integrated profit of styrene was - 203 yuan/ton, and the integrated profit was 421.08 yuan/ton [2] 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce issued the "Catalogue of Industries Encouraging Foreign Investment (2025 Edition)", which will come into effect on February 1st, 2026, aiming to guide foreign investment in advanced manufacturing and modern service industries [3] - In November, the total social electricity consumption was 835.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [3] 3. Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Pure benzene futures continued to fluctuate during the day, with significant upward pressure. Due to inventory pressure from concentrated imports, it maintained a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and attention should be paid to the support near the previous lows [4] - Styrene futures rebounded during the day, rising 0.87%, and tested the pressure of the 60 - day moving average on the daily K - line for the second time, with a certain possibility of breakthrough. Considering the seasonal inventory accumulation in the first quarter of next year, it is expected to remain volatile in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the support near the previous lows [4]