2026年海外宏观展望：美国AI投资拉动内需，货币财政双宽托底

Economic Overview - The US economy is in the later stages of a soft landing following a high inflation and interest rate cycle, with internal momentum weakening[4] - Consumer spending is showing signs of weakness compared to last year, while AI investments are supporting overall investment levels[4] - The labor market is cooling, with credit growth for households and businesses at low levels, indicating characteristics of a potential economic downturn[4] Labor Market - The employment rate has dropped to levels comparable to 2009, with voluntary resignation rates falling to 2008 levels, while layoffs remain low[5] - The unemployment rate is gradually rising but remains at a relatively reasonable level, particularly affecting younger demographics[5] - A significant portion of the unemployed is concentrated among younger individuals, indicating a need for substantial interest rate cuts[5] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Short-term inflation pressures are low, but medium to long-term inflation risks persist, with the Fed expected to cut rates by 50-75 basis points in 2026[6] - Tariffs are acting similarly to consumption and intermediate goods taxes, suppressing consumption and investment, with their effects expected to diminish by mid-2026[6] - The Fed's current monetary policy is neutral and insufficient to alleviate rising unemployment rates[6] Fiscal Policy and Investment - The US is expected to experience a dual easing of monetary and fiscal policies, which may help avoid a full-blown recession[7] - The capital market is seeing a decrease in the correlation between the 10-year Treasury yield and policy rates, indicating a belief that rate cuts may be nearing their end[7] - AI investments are significantly boosting fixed investments, counteracting the suppressive effects of high interest rates on overall investment[4] Stock Market Outlook - The US stock market is currently viewed as being in a bubble, with the S&P 500 exceeding its long-term trend by 41%[8] - Despite the bubble, the short-term risks to the stock market are considered low due to the easing of regulations and the AI investment boom[8] - Caution is advised in maintaining long-term positions, with close monitoring of liquidity flows recommended[8]