石油石化行业:中国天然气产量和消费量降低,欧美库存减少
Dongxing Securities·2025-12-24 12:04

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% over the next 6 months [4]. Core Insights - Domestic LNG ex-factory prices have decreased month-on-month and year-on-year, with a current price of 4143.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 212 CNY/ton (8.06%) and a year-on-year drop of 363 CNY/ton (4.87%) [9][10]. - The apparent consumption of natural gas in China for October was 34.866 billion cubic meters, showing a month-on-month decrease of 460 million cubic meters (1.30%) but a year-on-year increase of 472 million cubic meters (1.37%) [2][18]. - European natural gas imports in November increased both month-on-month and year-on-year, totaling 176,299.99 million cubic meters, which is a month-on-month increase of 7,244.29 million cubic meters (4.29%) and a year-on-year increase of 12,477.26 million cubic meters (7.62%) [3][27]. Summary by Sections Natural Gas Prices - Domestic LNG ex-factory prices have decreased to 4143.00 CNY/ton, with a month-on-month decline of 8.06% and a year-on-year decline of 4.87% [9][10]. - The NYMEX natural gas futures price has decreased to 4.04 USD/MMBtu, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 10.94% [9][10]. Supply and Demand - China's natural gas production in November was 589,350.00 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 12,090.00 tons (2.01%) [2][18]. - The apparent consumption of natural gas in China for October was 34.866 billion cubic meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.30% but a year-on-year increase of 1.37% [2][18]. Inventory - As of December 12, U.S. LNG/LPG inventory was 179,263.00 thousand barrels, showing a month-on-month decrease of 16,782.00 thousand barrels (8.56%) but a year-on-year increase of 24,727 thousand barrels (16.00%) [20][23]. - European natural gas inventory as of December 15 was 79.129 billion kWh, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 14.488 billion kWh (15.48%) and a year-on-year decrease of 10.299 billion kWh (11.52%) [22][25]. Imports and Exports - In November, European imports of natural gas increased to 176,299.99 million cubic meters, a month-on-month increase of 4.29% and a year-on-year increase of 7.62% [3][27]. - Imports of natural gas from Russia to Europe in November were 10,745.70 million cubic meters, showing a month-on-month increase of 1.17% but a year-on-year decrease of 46.04% [28].

石油石化行业:中国天然气产量和消费量降低,欧美库存减少 - Reportify