瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20251224

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The output of urea decreased slightly this week due to new device overhauls, but is expected to increase slightly considering short - term malfunctions of enterprises. Agricultural demand is in a short - term off - season, with some reserve demand for replenishment, especially in the Northeast. The start - up rate of compound fertilizer decreased slightly due to environmental warnings in some areas, and its capacity utilization rate is expected to decline steadily. Affected by market sentiment, urea factories' order intake improved and inventory continued to decline. After the end of environmental warnings, urea output is expected to rise and inventory may increase. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1710 - 1770 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 1735 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread was 23 yuan/ton, down 2734 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest was 187,367 lots, up 8318 lots, and the net position of the top 20 was - 24,111 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts were 10,432 sheets, down 100 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the price in Hebei was 1730 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Henan, it was 1680 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu and Shandong, it was 1710 yuan/ton, with Jiangsu down 10 yuan/ton and Shandong unchanged; in Anhui, it was 1700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was - 25 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton. The FOB price in the Baltic Sea was 350 US dollars/ton, unchanged, and the FOB price at the main Chinese port was 390 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory was 138,000 tons, up 15,000 tons; enterprise inventory was 1.1797 million tons, down 54,500 tons. The urea enterprise start - up rate was 80.69%, down 1.16 percentage points; the daily output was 195,100 tons, down 2800 tons. Urea exports were 600,000 tons, down 600,000 tons; the monthly output was 6,000,330 tons, up 129,060 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer start - up rate was 39.37%, down 1.25 percentage points; the melamine start - up rate was 58.55%, down 3.31 percentage points. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China was 140 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea was - 36 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer was 4.3825 million tons, up 753,800 tons; the weekly output of melamine was 30,500 tons, down 1700 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of December 24, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0689 million tons, down 110,800 tons from last week, a 9.39% decrease. As of December 18, the sample inventory at Chinese urea ports was 138,000 tons, up 15,000 tons, a 12.20% increase, with exports being shipped to ports steadily. As of December 18, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.3659 million tons, down 19,500 tons from the previous period, a 1.41% decrease; the capacity utilization rate was 80.69%, down 1.16 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and start - up rate on Thursday [2].