【冠通期货研究报告】玻璃纯碱日报：短期震荡-20251224

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term prices of both glass and soda ash may fluctuate. For glass, although there are short - term supports from macro - sentiment and coal price rebound, its upward driving force is insufficient. For soda ash, despite short - term support from continuous losses, slight de - stocking, and coal price rebound, the overall supply is still in surplus and the demand is expected to weaken [3][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - Spot Market: In the North China market, transactions are relatively flexible with prices weakly operating; in the East China market, enterprises purchase cautiously and some manufacturers' quotes are loose; in the Central China market, overall transactions are weak with a few prices falling; in the South China region, shipments are okay and most are on the sidelines. The market is generally not optimistic about year - end demand, and purchases are mainly for rigid needs [1] - Supply: As of December 18, the daily average output of national float glass was 155,000 tons, with a weekly output of 1.0849 million tons, unchanged from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 3.24%. The industry average operating rate was 73.99%, a 0.14% week - on - week increase; the average capacity utilization rate was 77.48%, unchanged from the previous week. A float glass production line in Guangdong with a designed capacity of 900 tons per day was shut down for cold repair, reigniting the expectation of production line cold repair [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of sample enterprises was 58.558 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 331,000 heavy boxes, a 0.57% increase, and a year - on - year increase of 25.73%. The inventory days were 26.5 days, an increase of 0.2 days from the previous period [1] - Demand: From January to November, the national real estate development investment was 7859.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%; residential investment was 6043.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.0%. The funds in place of real estate development enterprises were 8514.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9%. The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 9.7 days, a 4.2% week - on - week decrease and a 22.6% year - on - year decrease [2] - Profit: As of December 18, the profit of natural - gas - fired production lines was - 181.4 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 15.02 yuan/ton), the profit of petroleum - coke - fired production lines was - 0.07 yuan/ton (a week - on - week decrease of 35.71 yuan/ton), and the profit of coal - gas - fired production lines was - 7.63 yuan/ton (a week - on - week decrease of 14.14 yuan/ton) [2] Soda Ash - Spot Market: The spot market of soda ash fluctuates, with the trading center moving down. Enterprise devices fluctuate slightly, and the output of individual enterprises increases. Near the end of the month, downstream enterprises have poor purchasing sentiment, mostly on the sidelines, maintaining just - in - time procurement at low prices [4] - Supply: Last week, the soda ash output was 721,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,000 tons, a decline of 1.91%. The output of light soda ash was 331,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 65,000 tons; the output of heavy soda ash was 390,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 75,000 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 82.74%, down 1.61% from the previous week. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons or more was 87.49%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.33%. Although the new capacity of Alxa Phase II was put into production recently, the overall industry operating rate has been adjusted down, and the short - term supply pressure has been slightly relieved [4] - Inventory: The total inventory of domestic manufacturers was 1.5004 million tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from last Thursday, an increase of 0.07%. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 729,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,600 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory was 771,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 500 tons [4] - Demand: The downstream demand for soda ash is average, mainly consuming inventory and purchasing at low prices. Light soda ash is relatively stable, while the overall situation of heavy soda ash downstream is weak. In the short term, the production capacity of float glass and photovoltaic glass is stable, and the overall rigid demand fluctuates little. However, there is still an expectation of glass cold repair at the end of the month, and the rigid demand for heavy soda ash may weaken [4] - Profit: As of December 18, the theoretical profit (per two tons) of the combined - soda process was - 41 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16.33%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 66.7 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.33%. During the week, the price of raw - material rock salt remained stable, and the price of thermal coal continued to decline, weakening the cost support [5]