养殖产业链日报：延续弱势-20251224

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall situation of the breeding industry chain continues to be weak. Soybean prices are expected to continue the range - bound trend, corn prices are expected to be in a strong - side shock before the festival, egg contracts are in a shock with no trend - like market, and the pig market needs to wait for an obvious trend - like market [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Categories 3.1 Soybean - Northeast soybean spot prices are of high - quality and high - price, with low - protein soybeans having greater shipping pressure, and overall prices are stable. The winning bid rate of 211,108 tons of 2022 domestic soybean auction by Sinograin on Monday was 62%. Since the autumn listing, domestic soybeans have shown a pattern of low opening and high going, and Sinograin's purchase price of standard soybeans meeting futures delivery requirements is 2.025 yuan per catty. There is a strong policy support, with a two - way restraint between policy support and auction volume increase. The trend of soybean No.1 is expected to continue the range - bound trend [1] 3.2 Corn - Affected by the cold air, from December 22 to 25, most parts of China will experience temperature drops, and some areas will have heavy snow or blizzards. The snowy weather in the production areas will interfere with domestic grain transportation, while the weather in the sales areas is conducive to transportation. The cold and snowy weather in the production areas is not conducive to purchasing and sales activities, but helps the corn market to rise. The release of negative news such as regulatory reserve releases has alleviated the previous supply - demand mismatch contradiction, curbing price increases. Corn is expected to remain volatile before the festival, with limited upside space in the short - term [1] 3.3 Egg - In November, the national inventory of laying hens was still 1.307 billion, a slight month - on - month decrease of 0.31%, but still at a high level in the same period in recent years. The daily egg production is sufficient, and the market circulation pressure remains high. The short - term supply is still loose. The near - month spot remains in a volatile trend, and the far - month contract is in a tug - of - war between capacity reduction expectations and the slower - than - expected actual progress. There is currently no trend - like market, and the far - month contract has certain expected support but needs time to verify [2] 3.4 Pig - Currently, the temperature in the south is dropping slowly, and the demand for curing in the south is less than expected. The relatively late Spring Festival next year also delays some concentrated procurement demand, and the support from the consumption side for pig prices is limited. The supply - side pressure remains. Near the end of the year, some farmers need to cash in, and group pig enterprises have the phenomenon of increasing year - end sales. The spot supply pressure of pigs is still large, but the decline in the near - month inventory, especially the inventory of breeding sows, makes the far - month contracts next year have the possibility of rising, but this price increase will be reflected on the market at least after the Spring Festival. The pig market needs to wait for an obvious trend - like market, and whether the far - month price is undervalued is worthy of attention [2]