PVC日报：震荡上行-20251224

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The PVC market is showing a trend of oscillating upward, but the upward space in the near - term is limited. The PVC supply side has reduced开工率, but there is new production capacity. The demand side is affected by the slow improvement of the real - estate market, and the inventory is still at a high level. The market sentiment is boosted by the rebound of bulk commodities, but factors such as low prices in the Indian market and high futures warehouse receipts also have an impact on the market [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream Northwest region is stable. The PVC开工率 has decreased by 1.07 percentage points to 78.36%, remaining at a moderately high level in recent years. The downstream开工率 has dropped by 3.5 percentage points, and the orders for downstream products are not good. The export has increased slightly by trading at a lower price, but the demand in the Indian market is limited. The social inventory has slightly decreased but is still high. The real - estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and the improvement needs time. New production capacity has been put into operation. Although the market sentiment has been boosted, the upward space of PVC in the near - term is limited [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2605 contract increased in positions and oscillated upward, with a minimum price of 4,704 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 4,785 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 4,781 yuan/ton, up 1.55%. The position increased by 8,434 lots to 973,277 lots [2] 3.3 Basis - On December 24, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region rose to 4,450 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,785 yuan/ton. The current basis is - 335 yuan/ton, weakening by 7 yuan/ton and at a relatively low level [3] 3.4 Fundamental Tracking 3.4.1 Supply - Affected by the devices of Ningbo Hanwha, Leshan Yongxiang, etc., the PVC开工率 has decreased by 1.07 percentage points to 78.36%, remaining at a moderately high level in recent years. New production capacities such as Wanhua Chemical (500,000 tons/year), Tianjin Bohua (400,000 tons/year), Qingdao Gulf (200,000 tons/year), Gansu Yaowang (300,000 tons/year), and Jiaxing Jiahua (300,000 tons/year) have been put into operation in the second half of the year [4] 3.4.2 Demand - The real - estate market is still in the adjustment stage. From January to November 2025, the national real - estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The sales area, sales volume, new construction area, construction area, and completion area of commercial housing all decreased year - on - year. As of the week of December 21, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities has rebounded by 20.86% week - on - week but is still at the lowest level in recent years [5] 3.4.3 Inventory - As of the week of December 18, the PVC social inventory decreased by 0.25% week - on - week to 1.0566 million tons, 28.58% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory has slightly decreased but is still high [6]