【冠通期货研究报告】塑料日报：震荡上行-20251224

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged. Although the sentiment of bulk commodities has been boosted, the upward space of plastics in the near future is expected to be limited. Due to the recent new plastic production capacity coming on - stream and the gradual exit of the agricultural film peak season, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On December 24, the number of plastic maintenance devices changed little, with the plastic operating rate remaining at around 86.5%, which is at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.55 percentage points to 42.45% week - on - week as of the week ending December 19. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders and raw material inventory continuing to decline. Packaging film orders also decreased slightly. The overall PE downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years, and the destocking is slow. With an oversupply of crude oil and the escalation of the geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela, the rebound of crude oil prices is limited. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the plastic operating rate has increased slightly. The downstream construction has slowed down, demand in the north has decreased, and downstream enterprises' purchasing willingness is insufficient. [1][4] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The plastic 2605 contract reduced positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6284 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6418 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6408 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.99%. The position decreased by 41,207 lots to 540,352 lots [2]. Spot - Most of the PE spot market declined, with the price change ranging from - 150 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6150 - 6370 yuan/ton, LDPE at 7700 - 8530 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6550 - 7740 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 24, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 86.5%, at a neutral level [1][4]. - Demand: As of the week ending December 19, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.55 percentage points to 42.45% week - on - week. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders and raw material inventory continuing to decline. Packaging film orders also decreased slightly. The overall PE downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [1][4]. - Inventory: On Wednesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 690,000 tons week - on - week, 100,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, petrochemical destocking has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4]. - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose to 62 US dollars/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat week - on - week at 725 US dollars/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat week - on - week at 745 US dollars/ton [4].