Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 24, 2025, Shanghai copper opened higher and moved higher, rising during the day. The production of electrolytic copper in China in November increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and SMM expects a further increase in December. The profit of copper products was squeezed this week, the production enthusiasm of copper strips was weak, and the market trading activity was suppressed. Copper foil maintained a high - prosperity level. The zero long - term pricing of mine processing fees last week boosted market sentiment, and the Fed's game and the rise of precious metals were beneficial to copper prices, but the weak procurement sentiment of downstream enterprises may lead to a spot price correction [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - In November, SMM China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1031 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,500 tons (1.05%) and a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. From January to November, the cumulative production increased by 1.2894 million tons, an increase of 11.76%. SMM expects the electrolytic copper production in December to increase by 65,700 tons month - on - month (5.96%) and 6.69% year - on - year. The profit of copper products was squeezed this week, the production enthusiasm of copper strips was weak, and the production rhythm of enterprises slowed down. Copper tube enterprises were restricted by capital pressure and mostly chose to wait and see. Copper foil maintained a high - prosperity level due to the demand for energy - storage batteries and new - energy vehicles. The zero long - term pricing of mine processing fees last week boosted market sentiment, and the Fed's game and the rise of precious metals were beneficial to copper prices, but the weak procurement sentiment of downstream enterprises may lead to a spot price correction [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened higher and moved higher, rising during the day. Spot: On December 24, 2025, the spot premium in East China was - 290 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 150 yuan/ton. On December 22, 2025, the LME official price was $12,039/ton, and the spot premium was + $31/ton [4]. 3. Supply Side - As of December 22, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - $43.98/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.58 cents/pound [8]. 4. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 52,200 tons, an increase of 2,679 tons from the previous period. As of December 22, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 98,800 tons, an increase of 100 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 157,000 tons, an increase of 825 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 471,600 short tons, an increase of 4,276 short tons from the previous period [11].
沪铜日报：大幅上涨-20251224
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-12-24 12:26