工业硅期货日报-20251224

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View The industrial silicon market is currently in a game situation of "macro - sentiment support + oversupply suppression". Short - term support is provided by production cuts in the southwest, but high inventory, weak demand, and long - term capacity expansion pressure are the core negatives. The short - term price is difficult to break away from the weak and volatile state [8][9]. Section Summaries 1. Futures Market - Contract Quotes: On December 23, 2025, the industrial silicon si2605 futures contract mainly rose, closing with a positive line. The opening price was 8,600 yuan/ton, the highest was 8,810 yuan/ton, the lowest was 8,595 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 8,780 yuan/ton. The trading volume increased slightly, with a full - day trading volume of 351,425 lots and an open interest of 213,776 lots [2]. - Variety Prices: The total open interest of 12 industrial silicon futures contracts was 401,013 lots, a decrease of 15,701 lots from the previous trading day. Among them, the open interest of the active contract si2605 decreased by 7,830 lots [3]. 2. Spot Market - Basis Data: In the past 10 trading days, the basis of the active contract industrial silicon si2605 strengthened. The quoted price of industrial silicon non - oxygenated 553 was 9,250 yuan/ton on that day, and the basis was 470 yuan/ton. The futures contract rose 185 yuan/ton compared with the previous day's closing price [6]. 3. Influencing Factors - Industry News: The supply side shows a differentiated pattern of "production cuts in the southwest and high operation in the north", and the overall oversupply pressure has not been fundamentally alleviated. Production cuts in the dry season in the southwest continue to materialize, with weekly output in Sichuan and Yunnan decreasing and the furnace - opening rate at a low level for the year. The Xinjiang sample enterprises maintain a high operation rate, and the output of new silicon furnaces drives the regional output to increase steadily, offsetting the impact of production cuts in the southwest. The cost - side support has weakened. The price of carbonaceous reducing agents has dropped significantly. Although the electricity price in the dry season in the southwest has increased, the expected decline in the electricity price in the wet season in the far - month, combined with the decrease in raw material costs, weakens the overall production cost support and further opens up the downward price space [7]. 4. Market Outlook The industrial silicon market is in a situation where macro - sentiment provides support while oversupply suppresses prices. Short - term support comes from southwest production cuts, but high inventory, weak demand, and long - term capacity expansion pressure are the main negative factors, resulting in a short - term weak and volatile price trend [8][9].