PP日报：震荡上行-20251224

Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The PP market is expected to have limited upside potential due to unchanged overall supply - demand patterns, shortened downstream order cycles, and some falling PP spot prices [1]. - The L - PP spread is expected to decline as there are new plastic production capacity coming on - stream and the peak season for agricultural films is ending [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - As of the week ending December 19, the PP downstream operating rate decreased 0.19 percentage points to 53.80% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring grade, dropped 0.06 percentage points to 44.00% week - on - week, and the plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4]. - On December 24, new maintenance devices were added at Guangzhou Petrochemical, and the PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 82%, at a moderately low level. The production ratio of the standard drawstring grade decreased to around 27% [1][4]. - The petrochemical inventory is currently at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years, and the destocking is slow. The cost of crude oil has limited rebound due to oversupply and geopolitical issues. There is new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical put into production in mid - October, and there has been a slight increase in maintenance devices recently. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders are decreasing, and the market lacks large - scale centralized purchases [1]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract increased in a volatile manner with a reduced position. The lowest price was 6,157 yuan/ton, the highest price was 6,281 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6,278 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.93%. The open interest decreased by 18,588 lots to 539,752 lots [2]. - Spot: The spot prices of PP in most regions declined. The drawstring grade was quoted at 5,900 - 6,260 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 24, new maintenance devices were added at Guangzhou Petrochemical, and the PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 82%, at a moderately low level. The production ratio of the standard drawstring grade decreased to around 27% [1][4]. - Demand: As of the week ending December 19, the PP downstream operating rate decreased 0.19 percentage points to 53.80% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring grade, dropped 0.06 percentage points to 44.00% week - on - week, and the plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4]. - Inventory: On Wednesday, the petrochemical morning inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 690,000 tons week - on - week, 100,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The petrochemical destocking is slow recently, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4]. 3.4. Raw Material End - Brent crude oil's 03 contract rose to $62 per barrel, and the CFR price of propylene in China remained flat at $740 per ton week - on - week [6].