点石成金：铜：快速兑现目标，跨年仍有潜力

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the resupply rhythm of copper concentrates is expected to be tight in the first quarter and looser later, with the supply - demand situation possibly shifting from "shortage" in 2025 to "tight balance". High copper prices during the off - season and the potential adjustment pressure on prices are offset by tight raw materials, reduced domestic refined copper supply and refinery exports. The key to copper trading is the rhythm, and after a short - term adjustment, copper prices may continue to rise around the peak season next year [1][2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2026 Copper Concentrate Resupply Rhythm - In 2026, the global copper concentrate supply growth rate is expected to rebound to around 2%, with an increment of about 450,000 tons. The supply difference will vary quarterly, being tightest in the first quarter, and the market will focus on new projects in the second quarter, large - mine复产 in the third quarter, and new projects' production increase in the fourth quarter [1] "High Copper Price + Low Consumption" and Refinery Scheduling - The Shanghai copper price has exceeded 95,000 yuan, with a high position of 640,000 lots. During the off - season, the divergence between the rising copper price and domestic spot supply - demand signals has widened. The domestic copper social inventory has slowly increased to 168,400 tons, and the copper product start - up rate is expected to be lower than last year. However, the CSPT plans to reduce the copper ore production capacity load by over 10% in 2026, and the first - quarter domestic refined copper output growth rate is likely to slow. The supply of copper concentrates and scrap copper is tightening, and the export of unforged copper cathodes and cathode profiles has increased significantly [2][3] Key Trading Points in 2026 - In the fourth quarter of 2025, the market continued to implement the copper long - allocation strategy, accelerating the year - end rise of copper prices. Due to the tightest copper concentrate supply in the first quarter of 2026, copper prices have reached the $12,000 target. After reaching a high of 95,000 - 97,000 yuan, copper prices may adjust, but are likely to rise again around the peak season. The seasonal fluctuations of domestic social inventory around the Spring Festival will verify the supply - demand situation [4]