国投期货化工日报-20251224

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Methanol: One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Styrene: Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Polypropylene: Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Plastic: Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PVC: One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Caustic Soda: Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - PTA: One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Ethylene Glycol: One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Short Fiber: Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Glass: One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Soda Ash: Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Bottle Chip: Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Propylene: Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Views - The prices of various chemical futures showed different trends on December 24, 2025, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and downstream demand [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - The main contract of propylene futures rose. Price concessions led to better low - price transactions, but supply in Shandong was loose. PDH enterprises may reduce price - cutting willingness due to rising costs [2] - The main contracts of plastic and polypropylene futures rose due to technical rebounds. The domestic polyethylene market price continued to decline, and polypropylene faced issues like insufficient new orders and restricted circulation due to year - end fund recovery [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene oscillated and recovered, remaining in the bottom - range oscillation. There are expectations of supply - demand improvement, and a long position in the monthly spread is considered for the medium - term [3] - The main contract of styrene futures rose. Cost support was insufficient, and the supply - side pressure was difficult to reverse despite increased exports. Market procurement was mainly for rigid demand [3] Polyester - PX's strong expectations pushed up prices, but the upward momentum slowed. PTA's processing margin is expected to recover, and downstream polyester may reduce production [4] - Ethylene glycol had a large - scale position - reduction rebound. It is under long - term pressure but may see supply - demand improvement in the second quarter [4] - Short fiber prices fluctuated with raw materials, and its long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively good. Bottle chip demand weakened, and it is driven by cost with over - capacity as a long - term pressure [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol's port inventory increased significantly. It may oscillate weakly in the short term and has upward drivers in the long term. A long position in the 5 - 9 monthly spread is recommended [5] - Urea production enterprises reduced inventory, and the market was strong in the short term due to factors such as reduced production and stable demand [5] Chlor - Alkali - PVC showed a slightly strong oscillating trend. Supply pressure eased, but demand was weak, and it may operate at a low level [6] - Caustic soda showed a slightly strong oscillating trend. Supply pressure was high, and the upward range is expected to be limited [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash mainly showed a slightly strong oscillating trend. Supply pressure was large, and it may face long - term supply - demand surplus. A strategy of shorting soda ash and longing glass in the 05 contract is recommended [7] - Glass showed a strong trend. Inventory pressure was large, demand was insufficient, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [7]