国投期货贵金属日报-20251224

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold and silver are rated ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor. Platinum and palladium are also rated ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - Overnight, the US Q3 GDP recorded 4.3%, the fastest growth in two years, causing a temporary decline in gold and silver prices, which later recovered. Geopolitical risks in regions like the US - Venezuela and Israel - Iran have intensified, and the new all - time high of gold has strengthened the overall trend of precious metals [1] - Although the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has issued policies to increase margin requirements and limit positions for platinum and palladium, the actual delivery business will start on May 1, 2026, so long - position funds remain active. Long - position funds in the far - month contracts are crowded, and platinum and palladium hit the daily limit [1] - The large price difference between domestic and foreign markets has attracted wide attention. The price difference between domestic and foreign active contracts is expected to attract cross - market arbitrage funds when it exceeds 40 yuan/gram. The market is mainly driven by domestic funds, and the foreign platinum price has hit a new high. The upper price limit lacks a reference range, so focus on tracking capital movements. With the Christmas holiday approaching, foreign trading volume will decline, and attention should be paid to capital trends. Tonight, focus on the early - released US weekly initial jobless claims [1] Other Key Points from Related Information ADP Employment Report - In the four weeks ending December 6, 2025, private - sector employers added an average of 11,500 jobs per week [2] Statements from Trump and Fed Candidates - Trump said those who disagree with him will never become Fed chair [2] - Hassett, the next Fed candidate, predicted that monthly new jobs may return to over 100,000 and that the Fed is far behind the curve on interest - rate cuts [2] Suggestions from the US Treasury Secretary - US Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested that the Fed should discuss adjusting the inflation target to a range of 1.5% - 2.5% or 1% - 3% [3] Holiday Trading Suspensions - Due to the Christmas Eve holiday, the New York Stock Exchange will close early at 2:00 am Beijing time on the 25th; the Brent crude oil futures contract trading on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) will end at 3:00 am Beijing time on the 25th; the US Treasury bond futures contract trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) will end at 3:30 am Beijing time on the 25th [3]