有色金属日报-20251224

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ (White stars, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend, with poor operability on the trading floor, and it is advisable to wait and see) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★★★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The copper market has greater adjustment pressure from domestic spot supply and demand, but raw material shortages may be transmitted to refined copper, and the price difference is favorable for exports. Hold the previous long positions with the support level raised to 94,000, and set a dynamic stop - profit between 97,000 and a certain level [1]. - The aluminum market is mainly driven by the macro - environment. The long positions can be held with the 40 - day moving average as the support, and pay attention to the resistance at the previous high. For cast aluminum alloy, consider the opportunity to narrow the price difference when it expands to over a thousand yuan [2]. - The alumina market has an oversupply situation, and it will remain weak before large - scale production. The decline of the spot price is more certain due to the large basis [2]. - The zinc market is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton, with the support of downstream consumption and the expectation of loose monetary policies [3]. - The nickel market is dominated by policy - induced sentiment. Wait for the market to stabilize and adopt a short - term wait - and - see strategy [6]. - For tin, pay attention to the reduction of positions and emphasize the high - level risks. Consider allocating out - of - the - money long put options for spring contracts [7]. - The lithium carbonate futures price is in a strong oscillation, with strong fundamentals and the short side at a disadvantage [8]. - The industrial silicon futures are expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation, with market expectations centered on the expected centralized production cuts in the north at the end of the month [9]. - The polysilicon market has a co - existence of strong expectations and weak reality. The short - term trading floor may oscillate and correct under the adjustment of trading rules [10]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper - On Wednesday, the open interest of Shanghai copper increased to near the record level, and the price rose at the end of the session. The domestic spot price difference widened, and the refined - scrap price difference was average. The domestic spot supply and demand put pressure on the copper price, but raw material shortages may affect refined copper [1]. Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - The Shanghai aluminum price fluctuated. The spot discounts in East, Central, and South China remained stable. The aluminum market fundamentals had limited contradictions, and the social inventory fluctuated slightly. The market was mainly driven by the macro - environment, and the long positions could be held with the 40 - day moving average as the support [2]. - The price of Baotai ADC12 spot increased by 200 yuan to 21,500 yuan. The inventory of the cast aluminum industry and the exchange warehouse receipts fluctuated slightly. The tax adjustment may increase the cost in some areas [2]. - The operating capacity of alumina was at a historical high, with an oversupply situation. The industry inventory continued to rise. The cost of alumina had room to decline, and it would remain weak before large - scale production [2]. Zinc - The long positions in the intraday market continued to cover, and the open interest increased. The LME zinc inventory decreased slightly, and the external market rose along the 60 - day moving average. The zinc export window was closed, and the consumption in 2026 was not overly pessimistic [3]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Shanghai nickel price rose sharply, and the market trading was active. The price movement was mainly due to the stop - loss of industrial short positions, and the irrational trend was expected to be short - lived. The nickel ore quota in 2026 was significantly reduced, and the mineral benchmark price formula would be modified [6]. - The inventory of refined nickel increased, the nickel - iron inventory decreased, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased [6]. Tin - The Shanghai tin open interest decreased, and the price fluctuated greatly. The domestic spot tin price had a large discount to the delivery month. The short - term moving average still provided support. The supply was expected to turn around and resume in the first quarter of 2026 [7]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price broke through the 120,000 - yuan integer mark, and the market trading was active. The market inventory decreased, and the mid - stream was enthusiastic. The futures price was in a strong oscillation, and the fundamentals were strong [8]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures price continued to rise slightly. The market expectation focused on the expected production cuts in the north at the end of the month. Although the operating rate in Xinjiang decreased slightly, the actual production cuts had not occurred. The downstream demand showed some changes [9]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures price continued to decline slightly. The market was waiting for the storage plan to be announced, and the production quota in 2026 might be tightened. The actual price was stable, but new orders were limited. The trading rules were adjusted, and the short - term trading floor may oscillate and correct [10].