黑色金属日报-20251224

Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for rebar is ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish view but with limited operability on the trading floor [1]. - The investment rating for hot-rolled coil is ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish view but with limited operability on the trading floor [1]. - The investment rating for iron ore is ★★★, representing a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1]. - The investment rating for coke is ★☆☆, meaning a slightly bullish view but with limited operability on the trading floor [1]. - The investment rating for coking coal is ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish view but with limited operability on the trading floor [1]. - The investment rating for silicon manganese is ★★☆, suggesting a clear bullish trend and the market is currently evolving [1]. - The investment rating for ferrosilicon is ★☆★, the white star implies that the short - term bullish or bearish trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading floor has poor operability, so it's advisable to wait and see [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market has a slightly bullish short - term trend with caution due to factors like demand, supply, and macro - policies [2]. - The iron ore market is expected to trade sideways in the short term with a relatively loose fundamental situation [3]. - The coke market will likely trade sideways as the market anticipates stimulus policies despite a rich carbon supply and downstream demand characteristics [4]. - The coking coal market is likely to trade sideways as it faces fundamental pressure after discount repair but also has expectations for stimulus policies [6]. - For silicon manganese, it's recommended to try going long on dips considering the market situation [7]. - For ferrosilicon, it's recommended to try going long on dips given the demand and supply situation [8] Summary by Commodity Steel - Rebar's apparent demand has recovered, production has slightly increased, and inventory has continued to decline. Hot - rolled coil's supply and demand have both decreased, and de - stocking has accelerated slightly but pressure remains. Iron - water production has continued to fall, supply pressure is easing, and the slowdown of steel mill production cuts may slow. The downstream demand is weak, and exports are high. The short - term trading floor is expected to be slightly bullish [2]. Iron Ore - The global supply of iron ore is strong with high - end - of - year shipment expectations. Domestic arrivals are also strong, and port inventory has increased significantly. The demand is low in the off - season, and iron - water production cuts are expected to slow. The short - term trading floor is expected to trade sideways [3]. Coke - The third round of price cuts for coke has been fully implemented, production has slightly decreased, and inventory has slightly declined. The carbon supply is abundant, downstream demand has seasonal decline but still has resilience, and the price is likely to trade sideways [4]. Coking Coal - Some coal mines have reduced or stopped production at the end of the year. Production has slightly decreased, spot auction prices have slightly increased, and inventory has increased. The carbon supply is abundant, downstream demand has seasonal decline but still has resilience, and the price is likely to trade sideways [6]. Silicon Manganese - The spot price of manganese ore has increased. There are structural problems in port inventory. Iron - water production has decreased seasonally, and silicon manganese production and inventory have slightly declined. It's recommended to try going long on dips [7]. Ferrosilicon - There are expectations of coal supply guarantee, which may lead to a decline in electricity costs and blue - carbon prices. Iron - water production has rebounded, export demand has decreased, and metal magnesium production has increased. Supply has significantly decreased, and inventory has slightly declined. It's recommended to try going long on dips [8]