国泰沪深300Y份额:个人养老投资的指数化时代开启
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-12-24 13:41
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "Y share" of personal pension funds is a significant initiative in the context of the national strategy for personal pension system construction, with cost advantages and tax shield effects. It can guide the transformation from "short - term funds" to "long - term funds" [3][7]. - The CSI 300 index has relatively stable dividend returns, its current valuation has a safety margin, and its future profit expectations are optimistic, making it suitable for long - term allocation [3]. - The Cathay CSI 300 Index Securities Investment Fund has outperformed the CSI 300 index in the long - term, with excellent control over tracking errors, and is a high - quality passive index fund [33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Personal Pension Fund "Y Share" Introduction 3.1.1 "Y Share" Policy Background: The "Cornerstone" of the Third Pillar - In the context of population aging and fiscal pressure, the construction of the personal pension system is a national strategy. The "Y share" is a standardized interface for the public fund industry to connect with the national pension strategy [7]. - It has cost advantages, with fee structures that significantly reduce long - term holding frictional costs, and tax shield effects, providing direct tax subsidies for middle - and high - income groups [7][8]. 3.1.2 "Y Share" Market Significance: Mechanism Guidance from "Short - Term Funds" to "Long - Term Funds" - For individual investors, the closed - operation mechanism of the "Y share" can lock in long - term liquidity and obtain high - equity volatility premiums. The annual contribution limit forms an annual fixed - investment rhythm, which matches the characteristics of equity - type assets [11][12]. - For the market ecosystem, personal pension account funds are long - term and stable, which can improve the A - share investor structure, reduce market volatility, and support the real economy [12]. 3.2 CSI 300 Index Introduction 3.2.1 Dividend Yield Analysis: Relatively Stable Dividend Returns - The dividend yield of the CSI 300 mostly ranges from 2.0% to 3.5%, higher than that of the CSI 500 and 1000 but lower than that of the SSE 50. It combines growth and value components, suitable for investors who prefer stable cash flows [22]. 3.2.2 Valuation Level: The Overall Valuation Level Returns to the Historical Median - Since 2021, the valuation has shown a significant downward trend. Currently, the overall valuation level of the CSI 300 is in the middle range, with a certain safety margin and medium - to long - term attractiveness [25]. 3.2.3 Profit Level: Optimistic Future Profit Expectations for the Index - The net profit has shown a steady upward trend, increasing from about 3.8 trillion in 2020 to an expected about 5.9 trillion in 2027E, with a cumulative growth of over 55%. The ROE will continue to grow in the next three years, and the index has medium - to long - term allocation value [29]. 3.3 Cathay CSI 300 Index Securities Investment Fund Analysis 3.3.1 Cathay CSI 300 Has Outperformed the CSI 300 Index in the Long - Term - Since 2020, as of December 12, 2025, the cumulative net value of Cathay CSI 300 has increased to about 1.38 times, higher than about 1.12 times of the CSI 300 index. It has achieved stable excess returns, controlled volatility and drawdowns, and has the characteristics of "high return + low volatility + strong defense" [33]. 3.3.2 Excellent Tracking Error Control of Cathay CSI 300 - The average value of the absolute value of the daily tracking deviation since 2020 is 0.05%, and the maximum value is 1.28%. The annualized tracking error has been kept within 2% since 2020 and within 1% in the past three years [40]. 3.3.3 Asset Allocation of Cathay CSI 300 - The fund has returned from active exploration to pure passive replication. The stock market value accounts for 94% - 95% of the net value, higher than the benchmark requirement. The industry weight deviation is well - controlled, making it a high - purity and tool - oriented CSI 300 index allocation vehicle [46][49]. 3.3.4 Introduction of the Current Fund Manager - Wu Zhonghao, with 3.88 years of investment experience, currently manages 18 funds with a total managed fund scale of 253.91 billion yuan as of September 30, 2025 [52].