全球资产配置方法论黄金框架性报告之七：2026年黄金配置指南：供需新格局与战术择时策略

Core Insights - The long-term outlook for gold prices in 2026 remains positive due to persistent high U.S. fiscal deficits and the ongoing trend of de-dollarization, with global central banks continuing to purchase gold [3][6][22] - Tactical timing for gold in 2026 should focus on U.S. Treasury yield trends and volatility as key trading indicators, with increased volatility expected compared to 2025 [3][6][49] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The core driver of gold price increases since 2022 has been the widening supply-demand gap, primarily fueled by a significant rise in demand, particularly from central banks and ETFs [3][11][28] - Central banks, especially in the context of geopolitical risks and debt concerns, are expected to continue their trend of gold purchases, with China's gold reserves still significantly below the global average [22][28] - Investment demand, particularly from gold ETFs, has shown a notable recovery in 2025, with Asian markets contributing significantly to this growth [29][32][35] Fiscal Policy and Economic Indicators - The U.S. fiscal deficit is projected to remain high, making it unlikely for gold to enter a bear market; historical trends indicate that significant declines in gold prices typically occur during periods of reduced fiscal deficits [43][46] - The geopolitical landscape and political cycles are expected to exert upward pressure on global fiscal deficits, supporting gold price stability [46][49] Tactical Timing Indicators - The relationship between U.S. Treasury yields and gold prices remains relevant, with the potential for tactical timing based on yield movements and market volatility [49][51] - Geopolitical risks and U.S. policy uncertainties are anticipated to create short-term opportunities for gold, particularly around the 2026 midterm elections [3][49] Quantitative Analysis - A quantitative model suggests that if global central banks and gold ETFs maintain their purchasing momentum from 2025, gold prices could reach $4,948 per ounce in 2026, with optimistic scenarios projecting prices as high as $5,500 per ounce [3][4][49]