Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-12-24 15:20Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD is maintained as "Buy" [1][4] Core Insights - The report highlights that JD's revenue for Q4 2025 is expected to decline by 0.4% year-on-year to 345.5 billion RMB, with an adjusted net profit of 216 million RMB, resulting in a net profit margin of 0.1% [4] - The report anticipates that JD's retail revenue growth will be under pressure due to a high base effect from the previous year, particularly in the electronics category, while daily necessities are expected to remain relatively stable [4] - JD's new business losses are projected to narrow, supported by a solid user base and strategic focus on food delivery and international expansion [4] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for JD are as follows: - 2023: 1,084,662 million RMB - 2024: 1,158,819 million RMB - 2025E: 1,302,344 million RMB - 2026E: 1,402,107 million RMB - 2027E: 1,504,110 million RMB - The year-on-year growth rates are projected at 3.7% for 2023, 6.8% for 2024, 12.4% for 2025, 7.7% for 2026, and 7.3% for 2027 [3][5] - Non-GAAP net profit estimates are as follows: - 2023: 35,200 million RMB - 2024: 47,827 million RMB - 2025E: 26,163 million RMB - 2026E: 37,493 million RMB - 2027E: 52,256 million RMB - The adjusted EPS is projected to be 20.87 RMB for 2023, 31.14 RMB for 2024, 17.44 RMB for 2025E, 25.26 RMB for 2026E, and 35.01 RMB for 2027E [3][5]