资产配置日报：期待新叙事-20251224

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates a significant recovery in equity market sentiment, with major stock indices generally rising and small-cap stocks experiencing a rebound [1][2] - The report highlights that the Shanghai Composite Index has recorded six consecutive days of gains, with a cumulative increase of 3.04% since December 17, reflecting a strong market bottom and positive investor sentiment [1][2] - The report suggests that the current market rally may be an early onset of spring dynamics, with historical patterns indicating that most year-end rallies tend to touch previous highs before retreating [2] Group 2 - The report notes that the CSI A500-related ETFs have seen substantial net inflows, with a net inflow of 13.374 billion yuan on December 23 and a total of 69.179 billion yuan from December 11 to 23, accounting for 25.16% of the total scale of these ETFs [3] - It is observed that other broad-based ETFs did not experience significant net inflows during the same period, indicating that incremental capital may be waiting for more certainty before entering the market [3] Group 3 - In the bond market, despite frequent news impacts, market stability is gradually strengthening, with long-term interest rates maintaining a low volatility state [4][6] - The report discusses the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) recent monetary policy actions, including a net injection of 30 billion yuan in mid-to-long-term funds in December, which is slightly lower than previous months [6][7] - The report highlights that the PBOC's recent statements suggest a shift in focus from the quantity of credit to the quality and actual demand for loans, indicating a potential decrease in urgency for further interest rate cuts [7] Group 4 - The report indicates that the domestic commodity market has maintained high bullish sentiment for three consecutive days, with precious metals, particularly silver, showing strong performance [8][9] - It notes that silver has significantly outperformed gold, with a daily increase of 8.12%, driven by a combination of market dynamics and fundamental supply-demand factors [9] - The report also mentions that the lithium carbonate supply logic is facing a temporary correction due to the anticipated resumption of production at a lithium mining project, which may challenge current trading logic [10]