债市基本面高频数据跟踪报告：农产品超季节性涨价

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The economy shows mixed signals with some production indicators weakening while demand in certain areas improves, and inflation is affected by factors such as rising agricultural product prices and rebounding oil prices [2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Economic Growth 3.1.1 Production - Power plant daily consumption is weaker than the same period in previous years. On December 23, the average daily consumption of 6 large power - generation groups was 80.0 tons, up 0.1% from December 16. On December 19, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 201.2 tons, down 0.3% from December 12 [5][12] - Blast furnace operating rates mainly declined. On December 19, the national blast furnace operating rate was 78.5%, down 0.2 percentage points from December 12; the capacity utilization rate was 84.9%, down 1.0 percentage point from December 12. However, the blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills was 92.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from December 12 [5][17] - Tire operating rates fluctuated slightly. On December 18, the operating rate of all - steel truck tires was 64.1%, up 0.1 percentage point from December 11; the operating rate of semi - steel car tires was 71.4%, down 0.2 percentage point from December 11 [5][20] 3.1.2 Demand - New home sales in 30 cities improved month - on - month. From December 1 - 23, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 32.3 million square meters, up 37.6% from the same period in November, but down compared to previous years [5][27] - The retail growth of the auto market was weak. In December, retail sales were down 19% year - on - year, and wholesale sales were down 23% year - on - year [5][31] - Steel prices fluctuated strongly. On December 23, rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil prices changed by +1.5%, +1.1%, - 0.6%, and - 0.1% respectively compared to December 16 [5][36] - Cement prices rebounded locally. On December 23, the national cement price index rose 0.3% compared to December 16, but prices in East China and the Yangtze River region declined [5][37] - Glass prices fluctuated weakly. On December 23, the active glass futures contract price was 1,027 yuan/ton, down 0.5% from December 16 [5][43] - Container shipping freight rate indices rose for two consecutive weeks. On December 19, the CCFI index rose 0.6% and the SCFI index rose 3.1% compared to December 12 [5][46] 3.2 Inflation 3.2.1 CPI - Pork prices stopped falling and rebounded. On December 23, the average wholesale price of pork was 17.5 yuan/kg, up 0.7% from December 16 [5][51] - The agricultural product price index was significantly higher than in recent years. On December 23, the agricultural product wholesale price index fell 0.2% compared to December 16. By variety, fruits (+4.0%) > chicken (+1.5%) > pork (+0.7%) > mutton (+0.7%) > eggs (+0.4%) > beef (+0.03%) > vegetables (- 1.7%) [5][55] 3.2.2 PPI - Oil prices rebounded. On December 23, Brent and WTI crude oil spot prices were 63.2 and 58.4 dollars/barrel, up 4.3% and 5.6% respectively from December 16 [5][58] - Copper and aluminum prices rose. On December 23, LME 3 - month copper and aluminum prices rose 3.5% and 2.6% respectively compared to December 16 [63] - Most industrial product prices fell month - on - month in December, but the year - on - year decline of most industrial product prices converged [66]