增长的盛夏，就业的寒冬

Economic Growth - The US GDP for Q3 recorded an annualized growth rate of 4.3%, exceeding the expected 3.3%[2] - Year-on-year growth increased to 2.3%, but remains below last year's 2.8%[2] - Key contributors to the 4.3% growth were personal consumption (2.4 percentage points) and net exports (1.6 percentage points)[2] Employment and Consumption - There is a divergence in economic performance, characterized as "growth in summer" and "employment in winter"[2] - Non-cyclical sectors showed strong growth, while cyclical sectors experienced increased weakness[10] - Private consumption remains strong overall, but there is a notable disparity within consumption categories, with disposable income growth slowing[19] Investment Trends - AI-related investments contributed 0.8 percentage points to GDP, while private consumption added 1.1 percentage points, indicating a dual-engine growth model[10] - Despite strong AI investment, traditional sectors like residential investment remain weak, questioning the effectiveness of interest rate cuts[15] Risks and Uncertainties - Increased policy uncertainty under Trump may lead to greater market volatility and faster capital flight from the dollar[32] - Global economic impacts from tariffs could lead to unexpected synchronized easing in 2026, alleviating long-term interest rate pressures[32] - The potential for significant manufacturing cost reductions due to technological breakthroughs could increase credit demand[32]