弱美元继续发酵，沪铜领涨基本金属

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, the influence of a weak US dollar and supply concerns dominates. Despite the current weak consumption and relatively loose supply - demand situation, there are opportunities to go long on copper, aluminum, and tin. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin persist. Thus, the price trends of copper, aluminum, and tin are optimistic [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper - View: The weakening US dollar index leads to a strong upward movement of copper prices, with a medium - term outlook of being oscillatory and bullish [6]. - Analysis: The 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee Benchmark is set at $0/ton and $0/pound. Chinese copper smelters plan to reduce copper ore production capacity by over 10% in 2026. In November 2025, the output of electrolytic copper in China increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. As of December 22, copper inventory rose to 168,400 tons. On December 24, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount to the contract [6][7]. - Logic: The Fed's interest rate cut and balance - sheet expansion support copper prices. However, supply disruptions increase, and demand is weak during the off - season, which limits the upward space of copper prices [8]. 3.2 Alumina - View: The cost support is weak, and the alumina price remains under pressure, with a medium - term outlook of being oscillatory [8]. - Analysis: On December 24, the spot price of alumina decreased in most regions, and the alumina warehouse receipt decreased by 302 tons [8][10]. - Logic: High - cost production capacity fluctuates, but the supply contraction is insufficient. The prices of raw materials are weak, and the cost support is limited. There is pressure on the price from the perspective of warehouse receipt digestion [9]. 3.3 Aluminum - View: Pay attention to demand changes, and the aluminum price will rise oscillatory, with a medium - term outlook of being oscillatory and bullish [12]. - Analysis: On December 24, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum increased. As of December 22, aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories changed. In November 2025, the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased year - on - year. South32 increased the offer price of aluminum ingot premiums for Japan in Q1 2026 [12]. - Logic: The macro - expectation is positive. The domestic production capacity is high, and the overseas supply is expected to tighten. High aluminum prices suppress demand, and attention should be paid to future demand [13]. 3.4 Aluminum Alloy - View: The cost support continues, and the price will rebound oscillatory, with a medium - term outlook of being oscillatory and bullish [14]. - Analysis: On December 24, the price of ADC12 aluminum alloy increased, and the warehouse receipt decreased by 1 ton. An Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project started production [14]. - Logic: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing cost support. The supply may decrease due to policies, and the demand may weaken marginally at the end of the year [14]. 3.5 Zinc - View: The inventory trends at home and abroad diverge, and the zinc price rebounds with non - ferrous metals, with a medium - term outlook of being oscillatory [17]. - Analysis: On December 24, the spot price differentials of zinc in different regions varied. As of December 23, zinc ingot inventory increased. In November 2025, the import volume of zinc concentrates increased [17]. - Logic: The macro - expectation is positive. The short - term supply of zinc ore is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. In the short term, the zinc price may oscillate at a high level, and in the long term, there is a possibility of decline [18]. 3.6 Lead - View: The lead price rebounds with non - ferrous metals, and the supply - demand situation may weaken, with a medium - term outlook of being oscillatory [19]. - Analysis: On December 24, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries and lead ingots changed. As of December 22, lead ingot inventory decreased, and the warehouse receipt decreased by 152 tons. The implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles has affected battery consumption [19]. - Logic: The spot premium decreases slightly, the supply may increase after maintenance, and the demand is weakening marginally [19][20]. 3.7 Nickel - View: The expectation of Indonesian policies causes disturbances, and the nickel price continues to rise, with a medium - term outlook of being oscillatory [20]. - Analysis: On December 24, LME nickel inventory increased, and domestic inventory decreased. The price of high - nickel pig iron increased. Indonesia plans to revise the nickel ore RKAB in 2026 to 250 million tons, a significant decrease from this year [22][23]. - Logic: The domestic nickel supply decreases marginally, but the overall supply pressure remains. The demand is in the off - season. If the Indonesian policy is implemented, the surplus expectation will decline [24]. 3.8 Stainless Steel - View: The rebound of the nickel price drives up the stainless - steel price, with a medium - term outlook of being oscillatory [25]. - Analysis: The stainless - steel warehouse receipt decreased by 125 tons. The price of high - nickel pig iron increased. Indonesia plans to reduce the nickel ore production target in 2026 [25]. - Logic: The cost of stainless steel has some support. Production is expected to decline in December, and there is pressure on inventory accumulation [26][27]. 3.9 Tin - View: The rigid demand maintains resilience, and the tin price oscillates at a high level, with a medium - term outlook of being oscillatory and bullish [27]. - Analysis: On December 24, the LME tin warehouse receipt increased, and the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt decreased. The spot price of tin decreased [27]. - Logic: The supply of tin is a core concern. The supply is restricted in many regions. The demand is expected to increase due to the economic situation and industry development [28].