农产品早报2025-12-25：五矿期货农产品早报-20251225

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is affected by multiple factors, with the CBOT soybean price rising due to bargain - hunting, but facing pressure from slow US soybean sales and South American bumper harvest expectations. The domestic soybean and bean - meal market has large inventories, and the bean - meal price is expected to fluctuate [2][4]. - The palm oil market has been suppressed by over - expected production in Malaysia and Indonesia. Although there may be a reversal in the first quarter of next year, attention should be paid to the possibility of a sharp decline in 2018 and 2019. It is recommended to observe high - frequency data for short - term operations [7]. - The international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest in February next year. The domestic sugar price may continue to rebound in the short term [11]. - The Zhengzhou cotton price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to wait for a callback and then go long [14][15]. - The egg market has a high premium in the futures market. The near - month contract is mainly for squeezing the premium, and the far - end contract has a capacity reduction expectation but high valuation [17]. - The pig price is expected to be stable in the short term, with a near - month oscillatory trend. The far - end has a capacity reduction expectation [20]. 3. Summaries by Directory Protein Meal - 行情资讯: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose due to bargain - hunting, but faced pressure from slow US soybean sales and South American bumper harvest expectations. On Wednesday, the domestic bean - meal spot price was stable, with good trading and提货. MYSTEEL estimated that the soybean crushing volume of oil mills this week would be 2.1306 million tons, slightly higher than last week's 2.1206 million tons. The feed enterprise inventory days last week were 9.23, up 0.1 day month - on - month. The port soybean inventory decreased by 500,000 tons last week, but the bean - meal inventory increased due to large crushing volume, with an increase of about 550,000 tons year - on - year [2]. - 策略观点: The bottom of the imported soybean cost may have appeared, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. The domestic soybean and bean - meal inventories are relatively large, and the profit of oil extraction is under pressure. However, as it enters the de - stocking season, there is some support. The bean - meal price is expected to fluctuate [4]. Fats and Oils - 行情资讯: SPPOMA data showed that the palm oil production in Malaysia in December had different trends in different periods. The export data also showed a decline. India's vegetable oil imports decreased significantly in November. Indonesia planned to fine palm oil planters and miners for forest encroachment. On Wednesday, the domestic fats and oils continued to rebound, but the high - frequency production data of Malaysian palm oil was relatively high, which suppressed the market [5]. - 策略观点: The over - expected production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia has suppressed the market. Although there may be a reversal in the first quarter of next year, attention should be paid to the possibility of a sharp decline in 2018 and 2019. It is recommended to observe high - frequency data for short - term operations [7]. Sugar - 行情资讯: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded with a large reduction in positions. The spot price of sugar also increased. In November 2025, China's sugar imports decreased year - on - year, but the cumulative imports from January to November increased. The production data of Brazil and India showed different trends [9][10]. - 策略观点: The international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest in February next year. The domestic sugar price may continue to rebound in the short term [11]. Cotton - 行情资讯: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price was strongly volatile. The spot price also increased. There was a meeting to discuss reducing the cotton planting area in Xinjiang. The import data showed different trends, and the spinning mill's operating rate decreased slightly [13]. - 策略观点: The market had expected the reduction of cotton planting area in Xinjiang. The Zhengzhou cotton price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to wait for a callback and then go long [14][15]. Eggs - 行情资讯: The national egg price was stable or decreased yesterday. The supply was normal, and the market demand was average. It is expected that the national egg price will be mostly stable with a small decline today [16]. - 策略观点: The futures market has a high premium. The near - month contract is mainly for squeezing the premium, and the far - end contract has a capacity reduction expectation but high valuation [17]. Pigs - 行情资讯: The domestic pig price mainly rose yesterday, with some areas stable. The breeding side was generally holding prices, and the secondary fattening in the north still had support. It is expected that the pig price will be generally stable with a slight decline in some areas today [19]. - 策略观点: After the Winter Solstice, the demand decreases marginally, but the total amount still supports the pig price. The supply is large, and the weight decline is limited. The short - term has support from potential secondary fattening. It is recommended to maintain an oscillatory view in the near - month and consider short - selling on rebounds. The far - end has a capacity reduction expectation [20].