钢材淡季延续去库，基本?并??盾，钢?复产叠加冬储补库预期仍

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation". For specific varieties, the outlook for steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon is "oscillation", while the outlook for coking coal is "oscillation with a slight upward trend" [5][7][8][10][12][13][15][17] Core View of the Report - In the off - season, the fundamentals of the black building materials industry have limited highlights. However, the policy tone remains positive, and there are still expectations for winter storage and restocking. The futures market is expected to have room for a rebound from low levels, but the upside space is limited. The overall market presents an oscillatory pattern [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Situation of the Black Building Materials Industry - Steel is in the off - season with weak supply and demand. Although there is a slight improvement in demand and inventory is decreasing, the inventory level is still high year - on - year, and the upside space for the futures market is limited. Iron ore has a strong support at the bottom of the futures market due to the expectation of steel mill复产 and winter storage, but the port inventory is accumulating, and the futures price is expected to oscillate. Coal and coke are in a state of low - level valuation repair. Coke's supply - demand structure may tighten, and coking coal's fundamentals will continue to improve marginally [1][2] 2. Sub - sectors Analysis Iron Element - Iron ore: The demand support from molten iron is weakening, the port inventory is accumulating, and steel mills have not started restocking. The upstream - downstream game is intense, and the short - term ore price is expected to oscillate. Scrap steel: Supply is decreasing while demand is stable. Steel mills' inventory is relatively high, and restocking has slowed down. However, the profit of electric furnaces is acceptable, and the demand from long - and short - process steel enterprises still provides support. The spot price is expected to oscillate [2] Carbon Element - Coke: The cost side has shown signs of stabilization. With the expected steel mill复产 in January and the start of winter storage and restocking in the middle and lower reaches, the supply - demand structure may tighten, and the futures market is expected to oscillate following coking coal. Coking coal: As the year - end approaches, the intensity of winter storage increases, and the import pressure will ease in January. The fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, and the futures valuation still has room for repair [2] Alloys - Manganese silicon: The supply - demand pattern of the manganese silicon market remains loose, and the upstream inventory pressure is large. The upside space for the futures price is limited, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level around the cost valuation in the medium term. Ferrosilicon: The upstream supply pressure has eased, but the market has weak supply and demand in the off - season. The upside space for the futures price should not be overly optimistic, and it is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [2] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. The current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. Soda ash: The overall supply - demand is in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the supply surplus pattern will further intensify in the long term, with the price center continuing to decline [3] 3. Index Information - On December 24, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures' commodity index, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial product index all increased, with increases of 1.08%, 1.01%, and 1.10% respectively. The steel industry chain index increased by 0.22% on that day, 0.35% in the past 5 days, 0.04% in the past month, and decreased by 6.04% since the beginning of the year [104][106]