能源化策略报：煤油价格延续震荡整理，聚烯烃基差?幅?弱

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical disturbances affect the crude oil market, and the rebound of the chemical industry will be tortuous. The industry is expected to face challenges due to high inventories of liquid chemicals and geopolitical uncertainties [2][7] - Different energy and chemical products are expected to show various trends, including oscillation, rebound, and weakening, depending on factors such as supply - demand, geopolitical situations, and cost support [3] Group 3: Summary by Variety Crude Oil - View: Russia's crude oil exports reach a two - and - a - half - year high, with high floating storage. Oil prices should be treated with an oscillatory approach [9] - Main Logic: International crude oil futures continue to oscillate. Geopolitical trends are crucial. More refineries start to buy Russian oil as the discount narrows, but floating storage is increasing. Refined oil crack spreads are weak, and the oil price should be seen as oscillatory [12] - Outlook: The crude oil market may return to a pattern of weak supply - demand and continuous inventory accumulation after geopolitical tensions ease. Investors should adopt an oscillatory view [12] Asphalt - View: South China asphalt spot is at a discount to Shandong, and asphalt futures prices oscillate [13] - Main Logic: OPEC+增产 in December, the possibility of a Russia - Ukraine agreement exists, and the escalation of the US - Venezuela situation leads to expectations of raw material supply disruptions. The futures price oscillates widely. Also, high production in Hainan, South China's spot discount, and weak supply - demand all affect the price [13][14] - Outlook: The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued [14] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - View: High - sulfur fuel oil futures prices oscillate widely [3] - Main Logic: OPEC+增产, the possibility of a Russia - Ukraine agreement, and the tense US - Venezuela situation drive the rebound. However, high floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region suppresses demand, and refinery demand is weak in the off - season [14] - Outlook: Supply - demand is weak [14] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - View: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows crude oil to oscillate [14] - Main Logic: It follows crude oil, has strong product attributes, but faces negative factors such as falling shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. Currently, the supply has unexpectedly decreased, pushing up the valuation [14] - Outlook: It follows crude oil fluctuations due to low valuation and various negative factors [14] PX - View: Rumors of polyester factories continue to ferment, and the increase in the price of PX has narrowed [16] - Main Logic: International oil prices oscillate upwards, providing cost support. The rise of downstream PTA also supports PX, but rumors of polyester factory production cuts limit the increase. The supply of PX is sufficient [16] - Outlook: The short - term price will maintain high - level oscillation, with high profits. Caution is needed when chasing the price or short - selling [17] PTA - View: Rumors of polyester factory production cuts ferment, and the upward space is gradually narrowing [17] - Main Logic: The upstream cost is high, and PTA's spot and processing fees have recovered. However, rumors of production cuts in polyester factories may limit the continuous increase [18] - Outlook: The price follows the cost to oscillate at a high level, and the processing fee will operate within a range [18] Pure Benzene - View: Supported by the strong external market, pure benzene oscillates [19] - Main Logic: The support comes from the external market, with US devices restarting. However, the domestic situation is poor, with high inventory pressure and a downward - adjusted future expectation [21] - Outlook: There is still inventory pressure, and the external market provides temporary support [21] Styrene - View: There are constraints on both rising and falling, and styrene oscillates [22] - Main Logic: It has been oscillating weakly recently due to negative feedback from downstream ABS. The lower support comes from the external pure benzene market, while the upper limit is due to pure benzene inventory pressure and the upcoming inventory build - up of styrene [23] - Outlook: It is about to enter a period of inventory build - up, with obvious upper - limit constraints. Export transactions may stimulate short - term rebounds [23] Ethylene Glycol - View: Overseas device shutdowns and capital sentiment disturbances lead to a low - level rebound of ethylene glycol [24] - Main Logic: After hitting a new low, the price rebounds due to supply adjustments such as the planned shutdown of Taiwan's devices. However, the inventory build - up period has not ended, and demand may be dragged down by polyester factory production cuts [26] - Outlook: The short - term price will maintain range - bound oscillation, and the rebound height is limited [26] Short - Fiber - View: The pattern of strong upstream and weak downstream is prominent, with serious differentiation and compressed profits [27] - Main Logic: The upstream cost is strong, but the downstream demand is weak, resulting in compressed profits. The absolute price follows the upstream cost to oscillate [28] - Outlook: The price follows the upstream to oscillate strongly, and the processing fee is under short - term pressure [28] Polyester Bottle - Chip - View: The price is supported by upstream raw material costs [29] - Main Logic: The upstream costs of TA and EG increase, providing support. The market trading atmosphere is okay, and the price follows the raw materials to oscillate strongly in the short term [29] - Outlook: The absolute price fluctuates with the raw materials, and the processing fee has stronger support [29] Methanol - View: The inland market is weak, and the coastal market is stalemate. Methanol should be seen as oscillatory [32] - Main Logic: There is a significant differentiation between the inland and coastal markets. The inland supply is abundant, and the coastal inventory is high, suppressing the price [33] - Outlook: Short - term wide - range oscillation [33] Urea - View: Supported by compound fertilizer and export demand, the futures price oscillates strongly [33] - Main Logic: Environmental restrictions on supply end have ended, and demand from compound fertilizer and exports provides support. The inventory has decreased [34] - Outlook: Short - term oscillation is strong, but it may not last long. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction, off - season storage progress, and compound fertilizer factory operations [34] LLDPE (Plastic) - View: The futures price rebounds, the basis weakens, and LLDPE should be treated with an oscillatory view [37] - Main Logic: The futures price rebounds. Geopolitical factors cause short - term fluctuations, while the fundamental support is limited. The demand is entering the off - season [37] - Outlook: Short - term oscillation [38] PP - View: Slight increase in maintenance, PP oscillates [38] - Main Logic: PDH profits are under pressure, and there is an expectation of increased maintenance. Geopolitical factors affect short - term fluctuations, and the supply pressure is high due to the off - season and high inventory [38] - Outlook: Short - term oscillation [39] PL - View: Supported by PDH maintenance expectations, PL oscillates [39] - Main Logic: PDH maintenance expectations boost the price. The enterprise shipment pressure is high, and the downstream purchases at low prices. The powder profit is under pressure, and the low start - up rate has a negative impact [39] - Outlook: Short - term oscillation [39] PVC - View: The market sentiment is positive, and the short - term futures price is strong [40] - Main Logic: Macro - level sentiment boosts, and micro - level supply - demand has marginal improvement, but the oversupply expectation cannot be reversed. The production may stabilize, downstream demand is weak seasonally, and the cost is expected to be weak [40] - Outlook: Although the supply has marginal improvement, the rebound space may be limited. The market may return to weakness if marginal enterprises resume production [40] Caustic Soda - View: Supported by low valuation, caustic soda rebounds at a low level [42] - Main Logic: Macro - level sentiment boosts, but short - term inventory reduction may not change the oversupply situation. The demand from alumina and non - aluminum industries has different trends, and the cost is relatively stable [42] - Outlook: The short - term market sentiment is positive, and the price rebounds. However, the medium - term market may be under pressure if upstream production reduction is limited [42] Group 4: Variety Data Monitoring Inter - Period Spreads - The report provides inter - period spread data for multiple varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., showing the changes in different time - period spreads [44] Basis and Warehouse Receipts - Data on the basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil are presented, reflecting the relationship between spot and futures prices and the quantity of warehouse receipts [45] Inter - Variety Spreads - Inter - variety spread data, including spreads between PP and methanol, PTA and EG, etc., are given, indicating the relative price relationships between different varieties [46] Group 5: Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, specialty index, and sector index of CITIC Futures commodities on December 24, 2025, are reported, showing the performance of different indices and their historical and recent fluctuations [287][288]