品种晨会纪要：宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-12-25-20251225

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Group 2: Core Views - The short - term view of methanol 2605 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is bullish, with an overall reference view of bullish operation. The core logic is that there are differences between bulls and bears, and methanol is oscillating and bullish [1]. - Affected by the increasing domestic methanol supply pressure and the sharp correction of domestic coal futures prices, the methanol futures rebound is blocked and falls into a correction. Although the port and inland inventories have slightly declined, they are still at a high level. The downstream demand improvement is insufficient, and the olefin futures profit is weakening. With the weakening of the rebound momentum of domestic coal futures prices, the domestic methanol futures maintained an oscillatory and stable trend on Wednesday night, with a slight increase in the futures price. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures may maintain an oscillatory and stable trend on Thursday [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Time - cycle and View - For methanol 2605, the short - term (within one week) is oscillatory, the medium - term (two weeks to one month) is oscillatory, and the intraday view is bullish, with a reference view of bullish operation [1]. Price Calculation and Fluctuation Criteria - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price. The end price is the day - trading closing price to calculate the price change [2]. - A decline of more than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is considered bearish, an increase of 0 - 1% is considered bullish, and an increase of more than 1% is considered strong. The bullish/bearish criteria are only for intraday views, and no distinction is made for short - term and medium - term views [3][4]. Price and Driving Logic - Affected by supply pressure, coal price correction, inventory, and demand factors, the methanol futures rebound is blocked and falls into a correction. After that, it maintained an oscillatory and stable trend on Wednesday night, and is expected to maintain this trend on Thursday [5].