宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025年12月25日）-20251225

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore 2605 contract is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, and the intraday trend being slightly weaker. The current situation is weakly stable, and the ore price will move in an oscillatory manner [1]. - The iron ore supply - demand pattern has not improved. Demand continues to weaken and steel mills' profitability has not improved, keeping the weak pattern. The supply remains high, but there are positive factors like the unresolved structural contradiction in the spot market and the pre - holiday restocking expectation. The ore price will continue to face pressure but also has resistance to decline, and will continue to oscillate at a high level [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term (within one week) trend is oscillatory, the medium - term (two weeks to one month) trend is oscillatory, and the intraday trend is slightly weaker. The overall view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is that the current pattern is weakly stable, leading to oscillatory movement of the ore price [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The iron ore supply - demand situation is unfavorable, with demand weakening continuously and steel mills' profit not improving, which keeps the pressure on the ore price. The positive factors are the pre - holiday restocking expectation and the unresolved structural contradiction in the spot market. Although the domestic port arrival and miners' shipments have decreased month - on - month, they are still at a high level within the year, and the overseas ore supply is active. The overall supply remains high, and under the game of long and short factors, the ore price will continue to oscillate at a high level, and the restocking situation of steel mills should be monitored [3].