市场情绪不振，钢价区间震荡

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillatory [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillatory and Weakening [2] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Oscillatory [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillatory [4] Core Views - Market sentiment is low, and steel prices are oscillating within a range. Glass prices are oscillating upward with increased production line maintenance, while soda ash prices are oscillating narrowly. The sentiment of waiting and seeing is growing for ferrosilicon and ferrosilicon manganese, and their alloy prices are consolidating [1][3]. - For glass, the supply is contracting due to cold - repairs in some production lines in late December, but the supply contraction is insufficient, the rigid demand lacks improvement, and there is still an expectation of further decline in rigid demand as the Spring Festival approaches. High inventory also suppresses prices. For soda ash, although production has declined, it is still at a relatively high level, and with new production lines coming into operation, supply may increase further. High inventory and potential cold - repairs of float glass production lines pose challenges to heavy soda demand [1]. - For ferrosilicon manganese, enterprises are in continuous losses, with production and operating rates at relatively low levels, but the reduction in production is insufficient, leading to record - high enterprise inventories. The cost support has weakened. For ferrosilicon, production decreased significantly last week, inventory pressure has been relieved, and the fundamental contradictions have eased [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: Futures oscillated upward yesterday, while the market transaction center of spot goods moved downward, and downstream buyers mainly purchased on demand. Some production lines are expected to undergo cold - repairs in late December, leading to a contraction in glass supply [1]. - Soda Ash: Futures oscillated narrowly yesterday, and downstream buyers showed strong waiting - and - seeing sentiment, mainly purchasing for rigid demand [1]. Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: Production is oscillating at a high level, the supply contraction is insufficient, rigid demand lacks improvement, and there is an expectation of further decline in rigid demand as the Spring Festival approaches. High inventory suppresses prices. Attention should be paid to glass cold - repair situations and the impact of macro - policies on speculative demand [1]. - Soda Ash: Production has declined but is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period. With new production lines coming into operation, supply may increase further. High inventory and potential cold - repairs of float glass production lines pose challenges to heavy soda demand. Attention should be paid to downstream demand situations [1]. Strategy - Glass: Oscillatory [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillatory and Weakening [2] Ferrosilicon Manganese and Ferrosilicon Market Analysis - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Futures oscillated narrowly yesterday, and spot prices were consolidating at a high level. Steel tenders are ongoing, with prices in the northern market ranging from 5,520 - 5,570 yuan/ton and in the southern market from 5,620 - 5,670 yuan/ton [3]. - Ferrosilicon: Futures maintained narrow - range oscillations yesterday. Steel tenders are imminent, and spot prices are stable. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production areas is 5,200 - 5,250 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon is 5,600 - 5,650 yuan/ton [3]. Supply - Demand and Logic - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Enterprises are in continuous losses, with production and operating rates at relatively low levels, but the reduction in production is insufficient, leading to record - high enterprise inventories. Port manganese ore inventories continue to rise, and the total manganese element inventory has slightly increased, weakening the cost support. Attention should be paid to cost support and production changes [3]. - Ferrosilicon: Production decreased significantly last week as enterprises actively adjusted their production rhythms to cope with declining demand. Inventory pressure has been relieved, and the fundamental contradictions have eased. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction, cost - end changes, and regional policies [3]. Strategy - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Oscillatory [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillatory [4]